The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation
For over ten years, the Treasury has issued index-linked debt. This paper describes the methodology for fitting a smoothed yield curve to these securities that is used at the Federal Reserve Board every day, and makes the estimates public. Comparison with the corresponding nominal yield curve allows measures of inflation compensation to be computed. We discuss the interpretation of inflation compensation, and provide evidence that it is not a pure measure of inflation expectations being distorted by inflation risk premium and liquidity premium components. We attempt to estimate the TIPS liquidity premium and to extract underlying inflation expectations. (JEL E31, E43, H63)
Volume (Year): 2 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://www.aeaweb.org/aej-macroEmail: |
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: https://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis A. Longstaff, 2002.
"The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
9312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 511-526, July.
- Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, 02.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2006.
"Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2006-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
- Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02.
- Brian Sack & Robert Elsasser, 2004. "Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 47-63.
This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
- The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation (AEJ:MA 2010) in ReplicationWiki
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:2:y:2010:i:1:p:70-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros)or (Michael P. Albert)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.