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Challenges in macro-finance modeling

  • Don H. Kim
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    This paper discusses various challenges in the specification and implementation of “macro-finance” models in which macroeconomic variables and term structure variables are modeled together in a no-arbitrage framework. I classify macro-finance models into pure latent-factor models (“internal basis models”) and models which have observed macroeconomic variables as state variables (“external basis models”), and examine the underlying assumptions behind these models. Particular attention is paid to the issue of unspanned short-run fluctuations in macro variables and their potentially adverse effect on the specification of external basis models. I also discuss the challenge of addressing features like structural breaks and time-varying inflation uncertainty. Empirical difficulties in the estimation and evaluation of macro-finance models are also discussed in detail.

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    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2008/200806/200806pap.pdf
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    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2008-06.

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2008-06
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    27. Sims, Christopher A, 1998. "Comment on Glenn Rudebusch's "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?"," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 933-41, November.
    28. Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
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