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Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis

Author

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  • Julio Carrillo

    (University of Toulouse (GREMAQ))

  • Patrick Fève

    (University of Toulouse (GREMAQ and IDEI))

  • Julien Matheron

    (Banque de France (DGEI-DIR-Service de Recherche en économie et finance))

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. We exploit the restrictions of a DSGE model that is confronted with a monetary SVAR. We show that, provided enough informative variables are included in the formal test, the data favor a monetary policy representation with modest inertia and highly serially correlated monetary shocks. To the contrary, when the procedure is based solely on the dynamic behavior of the nominal interest rate, no clear-cut conclusion can be reached about the correct representation of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2007. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks: A DSGE Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 1-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2007:q:2:a:1
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Examining the bond premium puzzle with a DSGE model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 111-126, October.
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    4. Kyle Jurado, 2016. "Advance Information and Distorted Beliefs in Macroeconomic and Financial Fluctuations," 2016 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Identifying Taylor Rules in Macro-Finance Models," NBER Working Papers 19360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Johan Söderberg, 2013. "Nonuniform Staggered Prices and Output Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1017-1044, September.
    7. Jonathan Benchimol, 2015. "Money in the production function: A new Keynesian DSGE perspective," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(1), pages 152-184, July.
    8. Céline Poilly & Vivien Lewis, 2011. "Firm Entry, Inflation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," 2011 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Carrillo, J.A., 2008. "Comment on identification with Taylor Rules: is it indeed impossible?," Research Memorandum 034, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Poilly, Céline, 2010. "Does money matter for the identification of monetary policy shocks: A DSGE perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2159-2178, October.
    11. Horvath, Roman & Kaszab, Lorant & Marsal, Ales, 2021. "Equity premium and monetary policy in a model with limited asset market participation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 430-440.
    12. Igor Ézio Maciel Silva & Nelson Leitão Paes & Jocildo Fernandes Bezerra, 2016. "Evidences Of Incomplete Interest Rate Pass-Through, Directed Credit And Cost Channel Of Monetary Policy In Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 036, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson, 2012. "The Bond Premium in a DSGE Model with Long-Run Real and Nominal Risks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 105-143, January.
    14. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    15. Carrillo, Julio A., 2012. "How well does sticky information explain the dynamics of inflation, output, and real wages?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 830-850.
    16. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.
    17. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Why Are Target Interest Rate Changes So Persistent?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 126-162, October.
    18. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian Model: a formal test of backward- and forward-looking expectations," MPRA Paper 40278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
    20. Jang, Tae-Seok, 2012. "Structural estimation of the New-Keynesian model: A formal test of backward- and forward-looking behavior," Economics Working Papers 2012-07, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    21. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, July.
    22. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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