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Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?

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  • Julio Carrillo
  • Patrick Fève
  • Julien Matheron

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a simple econometric framework to disentangle the respective roles of monetary policy inertia and persistent shocks in interest rate rules. The procedure exploits the cross-equation restrictions provided by a DSGE model which is confronted to a monetary SVAR. We show that, provided enough informative variables are included in the formal test, the data favour a monetary policy representation with low inertia and highly serially correlated monetary shocks. To the contrary, when the procedure is based solely on the dynamic behavior of the nominal interest rate, no clear-cut conclusion can be reached as to the correct representation of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Carrillo & Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia or Persistent Shocks?," Working papers 150, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:150
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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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