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The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?

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  • Don H Kim
  • Athanasios Orphanides

Abstract

We review the concept of the term premium, examine alternative methods used to estimate it and discuss some of the challenges encountered in such efforts. We also explain how survey forecasts could be useful for providing an informal, model-free cross-check on simple regression-based forecasting models of term premia and for formal estimation of flexibly specified no-arbitrage models.

Suggested Citation

  • Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0706e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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