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The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Carlos Alberto Cuadros Lara, 2015. "Descomposicion de la estructura a terminos de la tasa de interes de los bonos soberanos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 18(2), pages 309-342, December.
  2. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
  3. Daniela Osterrieder, 2013. "Interest Rates with Long Memory: A Generalized Affine Term-Structure Model," CREATES Research Papers 2013-17, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  4. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  5. Joyce, Michael & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Bank of England working papers 356, Bank of England.
  6. Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos, 2020. "A General Characterization of the Capital Cost and the Natural Interest Rate: an application for Brazil," Working Papers Series 524, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Aleš Bulíř & Jan Vlček, 2023. "Monetary Policy is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 93-112, February.
  8. Ana Aguilar & María Diego-Fernández & Rocio Elizondo & Jessica Roldán-Peña, 2022. "Term premium dynamics and its determinants: the Mexican case," BIS Working Papers 993, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
  10. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  11. Juneja, Januj A., 2016. "Financial crises and estimation bias in international bond markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 593-607.
  12. Benjamin H Cohen & Peter Hördahl & Dora Xia, 2018. "Term premia: models and some stylised facts," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
  13. Don H. Kim, 2008. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Don H. Kim, 2009. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 519-544.
  15. Pakasa Bary & Yoga Affandi & Berry A. Harahap & Fenty T. Suryani, 2020. "Natural Yield Curve: The Case of Indonesia," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
  16. Almeida, Caio & Vicente, José, 2008. "The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2695-2705, December.
  17. Jessica James & Michael Leister & Christoph Rieger, 2017. "An empirical method of calculating the term premium," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1783-1793, December.
  18. Dr. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Dr. Basil Guggenheim & Dr. Matthias Jüttner, 2018. "What do Swiss franc Libor futures really tell us?," Working Papers 2018-06, Swiss National Bank.
  19. Don H Kim, 2007. "Challenges in macro-finance modeling," BIS Working Papers 240, Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "Short-rate expectations and term premia: experiences from Hungary and other emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 185-196, Bank for International Settlements.
  21. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
  22. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2009. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers UWEC-2009-24-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
  23. Don H Kim, 2007. "Spanned stochastic volatility in bond markets: a reexamination of the relative pricing between bonds and bond options," BIS Working Papers 239, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
  25. Espinosa-Torres, Juan Andrés & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Moreno-Gutiérrez, José Fernando, 2016. "The international transmission of risk: Causal relations among developed and emerging countries’ term premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 646-654.
  26. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
  27. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
  28. Samuel Maurer & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jul), pages 1-11.
  29. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
  30. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 12333, Banco de la Republica.
  31. Anne Lundgaard Hansen, 2018. "Volatility-Induced Stationarity and Error-Correction in Macro-Finance Term Structure Modeling," Discussion Papers 18-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  32. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 854, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  33. Nikola Mirkov, 2014. "International financial transmission of the Fed's monetary policy," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 7-49, September.
  34. Elizondo Rocío, 2023. "The Three Intelligible Factors of the Yield Curve in Mexico," Working Papers 2023-13, Banco de México.
  35. Lin-Yee Hin & Nikolai Dokuchaev, 2016. "Short Rate Forecasting Based On The Inference From The Cir Model For Multiple Yield Curve Dynamics," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 1-33, March.
  36. Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  37. Bulíř, Aleš & Vlček, Jan, 2021. "Monetary transmission: Are emerging market and low-income countries different?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 95-108.
  38. Salome Tvalodze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Tamar Mdivnishvili & Davit Tutberidze & Zviad Zedginidze, 2016. "The National Bank of Georgia's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System," NBG Working Papers 01/2016, National Bank of Georgia.
  39. Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Basil Guggenheim & Matthias Jüttner, 2019. "A survey-based estimation of the Swiss franc forward term premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-18, December.
  40. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  41. Guimarães , Rodrigo, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
  42. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
  43. Lutz Kruschwitz, 2018. "Das Problem der Anschlussverzinsung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 9-45, March.
  44. Mirkov, Nikola, 2012. "International Financial Transmission of the US Monetary Policy: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers on Finance 1201, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
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