IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/col/000094/012609.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The International Transmission of Risk: Causal Relations Among Developed and Emerging Countries� Term Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Andr�s Espinosa-Torres
  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez
  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia
  • Jos� Fernando Moreno-Guti�rrez

Abstract

We study the effect of shocks to the United States government bonds term premium on Latin American government bonds term premia. For doing so, we compute dynamic multipliers. Our main findings indicate that Latin American countries� term premia respond permanently to changes in United States term premium. However, impulse-response functions vary depending on the country and particular time-length for which premia are computed. Responses are larger for Brazil and Colombia. Mexico exhibits the lowest responses for the four economies in our study.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Andr�s Espinosa-Torres & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Jos� Fernando Moreno-Guti�rrez, 2015. "The International Transmission of Risk: Causal Relations Among Developed and Emerging Countries� Term Premia," Borradores de Economia 12609, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:012609
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/sites/default/files/publicaciones/archivos/be_869.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Don H Kim & Athanasios Orphanides, 2007. "The bond market term premium: what is it, and how can we measure it?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    2. Alexander Guarín & Jos� Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Challenges related to capital flows: Latin American perspectives," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 68, June.
    4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    5. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    6. Jair N Ojeda-Joya & José E Gómez-González, 2014. "The Term Structure of Sovereign Default Risk in an Emerging Economy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(4), pages 657-675, December.
    7. Juan Andr�s Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Jos� Fernando Moreno Guti�rrez, 2014. "Estimaci�n de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 12333, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2011. "Term Premia and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1514-1534, June.
    9. Lim, Jamus Jerome & Mohapatra, Sanket & Stocker, Marc, 2014. "Tinker, taper, QE, bye ? the effect of quantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6820, The World Bank.
    10. Dongchul Cho & Changyong Rhee, 2013. "Effects of Quantitative Easing on Asia: Capital Flows and Financial Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 350, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2014. "Investor sentiment and bond risk premia," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 206-233.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Pareja Restrepo, 2016. "Financial Interdependence and Contagion: the transmission of financial stress from the United States to Latin America," Documentos CEDE 14235, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    2. Daniel Mariño-Ustacara & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Relación entre los valores en riesgo de los principales mercados financieros colombianos: un enfoque a través de modelos multivariados de regresión cuantílica," Borradores de Economia 975, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Espinosa-Torres, Juan Andrés & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Moreno-Gutiérrez, José Fernando, 2016. "The international transmission of risk: Causal relations among developed and emerging countries’ term premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 646-654.
    2. Juan Andr�s Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Jos� Fernando Moreno Guti�rrez, 2014. "Estimaci�n de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 12333, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 854, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Diego-Fernández Forseck María & Elizondo Rocío & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2020. "Term Premium Dynamics and its Determinants: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2020-18, Banco de México.
    5. Martin Pažický, 2021. "Predicting Recessions in Germany Using the German and the US Yield Curve," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 263-291, December.
    6. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. De Rezende, Rafael B. & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2023. "A shadow rate without a lower bound constraint," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Karahan, Cenk C. & Soykök, Emre, 2022. "Term premium dynamics in an emerging market: Risk, liquidity, and behavioral factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Carlos Alberto Cuadros Lara, 2015. "Descomposicion de la estructura a terminos de la tasa de interes de los bonos soberanos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 18(2), pages 309-342.
    11. McQuade, Peter & Falagiarda, Matteo & Tirpák, Marcel, 2015. "Spillovers from the ECB's non-standard monetary policies on non-euro area EU countries: evidence from an event-study analysis," Working Paper Series 1869, European Central Bank.
    12. Bandi, Federico M. & Bretscher, Lorenzo & Tamoni, Andrea, 2023. "Return predictability with endogenous growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    13. Abbritti, Mirko & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis & Moreno, Antonio, 2023. "Term premium in a fractionally cointegrated yield curve," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    14. Juan Andr�s Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Veland�a & Jos� Fernando Moreno-Guti�rrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflaci�n, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposici�n del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 13700, Banco de la Republica.
    15. Peter Tillmann, 2020. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Response of the Yield Curve to Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(4), pages 803-833, June.
    16. Arteta,Carlos & Kose,Ayhan & Stocker,Marc & Taskin,Temel, 2016. "Negative interest rate policies : sources and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7791, The World Bank.
    17. Yahyaei, Hamid & Singh, Abhay & Smith, Tom, 2025. "Ex ante bond returns and time-varying monotonicity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    18. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    19. Alessio Ciarlone & Andrea Colabella, 2016. "Spillovers of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy into CESEE economies," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 34(81), pages 175-190.
    20. MacDonald, Margaux, 2017. "International capital market frictions and spillovers from quantitative easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-156.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000094:012609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angelica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.