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An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields?

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  • Alexander Guarín

    ()

  • José Fernando Moreno

    ()

  • Hernando Vargas

    ()

Abstract

We study the relationship between US and Colombian sovereign debt interest rates. We also evaluate the response of the Colombian long-term bond yield and other asset prices to shocks to the US long-term Treasury rate. Two empirical exercises are performed. First, we use a moving window linear regression to examine the link between sovereign bond yields. Second, we estimate a VARX – MGARCH model to compute the short-term response of local asset prices to foreign financial shocks. Our exercises consider daily data between 2004 and 2013. The analysis is performed on three sample periods (i.e. before, during and after the global financial crisis). Our findings show that the link between sovereign bond yields has changed over time. Moreover, the short-run responses of local asset prices to foreign financial shocks have been qualitatively different in the three periods. The especial role of US Treasuries as a “safe haven asset” during highly volatile time spans seems to be at the root of these changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011311, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:011311
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    Cited by:

    1. Espinosa-Torres, Juan Andrés & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando & Moreno-Gutiérrez, José Fernando, 2016. "The international transmission of risk: Causal relations among developed and emerging countries’ term premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 646-654.
    2. Juan Andrés Espinosa Torres & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez, 2014. "Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012333, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    3. Carlos Alberto Cuadros Lara, 2015. "Descomposicion de la estructura a terminos de la tasa de interes de los bonos soberanos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, vol. 18(2), pages 309-342, December.
    4. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," Borradores de Economia 919, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term bond yields; global financial crisis; emerging markets; moving window linear regression; VARX – MGARCH model.;

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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