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Que peut-on attendre de l’assouplissement quantitatif de la BCE ?

Listed author(s):
  • Christophe Blot
  • Jérôme Creel
  • Paul Hubert
  • Fabien Labondance

En annonçant un plan d’assouplissement quantitatif ( QE ) en janvier 2015, la BCE renforce les moyens mis en œuvre pour lutter contre le risque déflationniste dans la zone euro. Ce risque s’est en effet amplifié avec le recul de l’inflation, le maintien d’un niveau de chômage élevé et la possibilité d’un décrochage des anticipations. Les modalités du QE sont proches de celles adoptées par d’autres banques centrales, en particulier la Réserve fédérale ou la Banque d’Angleterre, si bien que l’on pe ut tirer des enseignements des effets de ces politiques monétaires non-conven tionnelles. Bien que les effets sur l'économie réelle restent incertains il ressort néanmoins que ces mesures ont conduit à une baisse des ta ux d’intérêt souverains et plus généralement à une amélioration des conditions financières dans l’ensemble de l’économie. Ces effets ont notamment résulté d’un signal sur l’orientation présente et future de la politique monétaire et d’une réalloca tion des portefeuilles des investisseurs. Certaines études montre nt également que le QE américain a provoqué une dépréciation du dollar. Cet effet pourra it être primordial dans le cas des mesures prises par la BCE. Une analyse en termes de modèles VAR montre que les mesures de politique monétaire prises par la BCE ont un effet significatif sur l’euro mais également sur l’inflation et les anticipations d’inflation.

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Article provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

Volume (Year): N° 138 (2015)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 265-290

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_138_0265
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-de-l-ofce.htm

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