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Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?

Author

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  • José Dorich
  • Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre
  • Vadym Lepetyuk
  • Rhys R. Mendes

Abstract

Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2%. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3% or 4% could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. We find that the magnitude of the benefits hinges critically on two elements: (i) the availability and effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) tools at the effective lower bound and (ii) the level of the real neutral interest rate. In particular, we show that when the real neutral rate is in line with the central tendency of estimates, raising the inflation target yields some improvement in macroeconomic outcomes. There are only modest gains if effective UMP tools are available. In contrast, with a deeply negative real neutral rate, a higher inflation target substantially improves macroeconomic stability regardless of UMP.

Suggested Citation

  • José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:51:y:2018:i:3:p:1029-1055
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12343
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    3. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    4. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    5. Joel Wagner & Tudor Schlanger & Yang Zhang, 2022. "A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality," Discussion Papers 2022-4, Bank of Canada.
    6. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2020. "Residential Investment and Economic Activity: Evidence from the Past Five Decades," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 287-329, December.
    7. Jeff Fuhrer & Giovanni P. Olivei & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M.B. Tootell, 2018. "Should the Federal Reserve Regularly Evaluate Its Monetary Policy Framework?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 443-517.
    8. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    9. E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva V. & A. Grebenkina M. & Е. Синельникова-Мурылева В. & А. Гребенкина М., 2019. "Оптимальная инфляция и инфляционное таргетирование: страновой опыт // Optimal Inflation and Inflation Targeting: International Experience," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(1), pages 49-65.

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    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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