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Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future

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  • Eric R. Sims
  • Jing Cynthia Wu

Abstract

We develop a structural DSGE model to systematically study the principal tools of unconventional monetary policy – quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and negative interest rate policy (NIRP) – as well as the interactions between them. To generate the same output response, the requisite NIRP and forward guidance interventions are twice as large as a conventional policy shock, which seems implausible in practice. In contrast, QE via an endogenous feedback rule can alleviate the constraints on conventional policy posed by the zero lower bound. Quantitatively, QE1-QE3 can account for two thirds of the observed decline in the “shadow” Federal Funds rate. In spite of its usefulness, QE does not come without cost. A large balance sheet has consequences for different normalization plans, the efficacy of NIRP, and the effective lower bound on the policy rate.

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  • Eric R. Sims & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2019. "Evaluating Central Banks' Tool Kit: Past, Present, and Future," NBER Working Papers 26040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26040
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    Cited by:

    1. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira, 2021. "Does Public Debt Ownership Structure Matter for a Borrowing Country?," Working Papers REM 2021/0190, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Jason Choi & Andrew Foerster, 2021. "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 42, pages 333-346, October.
    4. Onofri, Marco & Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2023. "The effectiveness of a negative interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 16-33.
    5. Oliver de Groot & Alexander Haas, 2020. "The Negative Interest Rate Policy Experiment," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(01), pages 7-12, April.
    6. Dario Bonciani & David Gauthier & Derrick Kanngiesser, 2023. "Slow Recoveries, Endogenous Growth and Macro-prudential Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 698-715, December.
    7. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martínez García & Christopher J. Neely, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(4), pages 425-460, October.
    8. Gerke, Rafael & Kienzler, Daniel & Scheer, Alexander, 2022. "On the macroeconomic effects of reinvestments in asset purchase programmes," Discussion Papers 47/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Robert Kurtzman & David Zeke, 2020. "Misallocation Costs of Digging Deeper into the Central Bank Toolkit," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 94-126, October.
    10. Vasiliki Dimakopoulou & George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2023. "Can Central Banks Do the Unpleasant Job That Governments Should Do?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10603, CESifo.
    11. Weale, Martin & Wieladek, Tomasz, 2022. "Financial effects of QE and conventional monetary policy compared," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Michael Ellington, 2022. "The Empirical Relevance of the Shadow Rate and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1605-1635, September.
    13. Johnna Montgomerie, 2023. "COVID Keynesianism: locating inequality in the Anglo-American crisis response," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(1), pages 211-223.
    14. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2022. "Time-Varying Parameter Four-Equation DSGE Model," Working Papers 202234, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Dario Caldara & Etienne Gagnon & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Christopher J. Neely, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2020-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 02 Nov 2020.
    17. Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Non-standard monetary policy measures in the new normal," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1251, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Bi, Huixin & Traum, Nora, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policy and local fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Cardamone, Dario & Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2023. "Wall Street QE vs. Main Street Lending," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Patrick Gruning & Andrejs Zlobins, 2023. "Quantitative Tightening: Lessons from the US and Potential Implications for the EA," Working Papers 2023/09, Latvijas Banka.
    21. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint Guilhem, Arthur & Yiangou, Jonathan, 2019. "A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20," Working Paper Series 2346, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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