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Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data

Author

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  • Julio Garín

    (Claremont McKenna College)

  • Robert Lester

    (Colby College)

  • Eric Sims

    (University of Notre Dame and NBER)

Abstract

The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. We find that there is no significant difference in the response of expected inflation to a productivity shock at the ZLB compared to normal times.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2019. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 160-175, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:101:y:2019:i:1:p:160-175
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    11. Deepa D. Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2021. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 214-253, April.
    12. Pavel S. Kapinos, 2021. "Monetary policy news and systemic risk at the zero lower bound," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 4932-4945, October.
    13. Sardar, Naafey & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Revisiting the relationship between oil supply news shocks and U.S. economic activity: Role of the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Jorge Pozo & Youel Rojas, 2021. "Unconventional Credit Policy in an Economy under Zero Lower Bound," IHEID Working Papers 14-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    15. Alexander Mechanick & Jacob P. Weber, 2024. "The Countercyclical Benefits of Regulatory Costs," Staff Reports 1109, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. Yangyang Ji, 2021. "Are Technology Shocks More Expansionary at the ZLB?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(3), pages 296-317.
    17. Argha , Leila & Mowlaei , Mohammad & Khezri , Mohsen & Shahabadi , Abolfazl, 2017. "Impact of the Selected Domestic and Foreign Markets Returns on Stock Price in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(4), pages 481-489, October.
    18. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Bing Tong, 2020. "Capacity Reduction Policy Under the Interest Rate Peg in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    21. Aymeric Ortmans, 2020. "Evolving Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of the Great Recession," Documents de recherche 20-01, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    22. Tong, Bing, 2021. "The effects of capacity reduction policy under the interest rate peg in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    23. Sims, Eric & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Evaluating Central Banks’ tool kit: Past, present, and future," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 135-160.
    24. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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