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Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data

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  • Julio Garín
  • Robert Lester
  • Eric Sims

Abstract

The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. However, in line with the predictions of the basic model, positive productivity shocks have a stronger negative effect on inflation at the ZLB.

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2016. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," NBER Working Papers 22311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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