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Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg of Deterministic versus Stochastic Duration

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  • CHARLES T. CARLSTROM
  • TIMOTHY S. FUERST
  • MATTHIAS PAUSTIAN

Abstract

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary‐fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary‐fiscal expansion is for a fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen's inequality type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in duration, and the stochastic multiplier is a weighted average of the deterministic multipliers. The quantitative difference in the two multipliers also arises in a model with capital, and in the baseline nonlinear model. However, the differences between the two are less pronounced in the nonlinear models. The errors from a linear approximation are much larger for the stochastic exit model then for the deterministic exit model.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers under an Interest Rate Peg of Deterministic versus Stochastic Duration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1312, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:46:y:2014:i:6:p:1293-1312
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12141
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Anastasia Zhutova, 2015. "Labor Market Policies and the "Missing Deflation" Puzzle: Lessons from Hoover Policies during the U.S Great Depression," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 15.05, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    2. repec:eee:moneco:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:47-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Julien Albertini & Hong Lan, 2016. "The importance of time-varying parameters in new Keynesian models with zero lower bound," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2015. "Fiscal policy, interest rate spreads,and the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series in Economics 80, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    5. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    6. Adiya Belgibayeva & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Optimal Conventional Stabilization Policy in a Liquidity Trap When Wages and Prices are Sticky," Discussion Papers 15/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    7. Volker Hahn, 2017. "Policy Effects in a Simple Fully Non-Linear New Keynesian Model of the Liquidity Trap," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2017-05, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    8. Atanas Pekanov, 2018. "The New View on Fiscal Policy and its Implications for the European Monetary Union," WIFO Working Papers 562, WIFO.
    9. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst & Matthias Paustian, 2017. "Targeting Long Rates in a Model with Segmented Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 205-242, January.
    10. Gauti Eggertson & Vaishali Garga, 2019. "Sticky Prices versus Sticky Information: Does it Matter for Policy Paradoxes?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 363-392, January.
    11. Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Reputation and Liquidity Traps," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 252-268, April.
    12. Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2016. "Raise Rates to Raise Inflation? Neo-Fisherianism in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 22177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Jasmin Sin, 2016. "The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy; The Role of Liquidity Frictions," IMF Working Papers 16/138, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Timothy S. Hills & Taisuke Nakata, 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers at the Zero Lower Bound: The Role of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 155-172, February.
    15. Julio Garín & Robert Lester & Eric Sims, 2016. "Are Supply Shocks Contractionary at the ZLB? Evidence from Utilization-Adjusted TFP Data," NBER Working Papers 22311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2017. "Fiscal Multipliers and Monetary Policy: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," Working Paper Series in Economics 95, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.

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