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Policy multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic versus stochastic duration

Author

Listed:
  • Carlstrom, Chartles

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Fuerst , Timothy

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Paustian, Matthias

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest in linearised sticky price model. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary-fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary-fiscal expansion is for fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen’s inequality-type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in duration, and the stochastic multiplier is a weighted average of the deterministic multipliers. The quantitative difference in the two multipliers also arises in a model with capital, and in the baseline non-linear model. However, the difference between the two is less pronounced in the non-linear models. The errors from a linear approximation are much larger for the stochastic exit model than for the deterministic exit model. Thus, we conclude that the deterministic exit model should be preferred.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlstrom, Chartles & Fuerst , Timothy & Paustian, Matthias, 2013. "Policy multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic versus stochastic duration," Bank of England working papers 475, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0475
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
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    4. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    5. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    6. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    2. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matthew, 2017. "Uncertain forward guidance," Bank of England working papers 654, Bank of England.
    3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; fixed interest rates; New Keynesian model; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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