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Policy multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic versus stochastic duration


  • Carlstrom, Chartles

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Fuerst , Timothy

    () (University of Notre Dame)

  • Paustian, Matthias

    () (Bank of England)


This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest in linearised sticky price model. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary-fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary-fiscal expansion is for fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen’s inequality-type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in duration, and the stochastic multiplier is a weighted average of the deterministic multipliers. The quantitative difference in the two multipliers also arises in a model with capital, and in the baseline non-linear model. However, the difference between the two is less pronounced in the non-linear models. The errors from a linear approximation are much larger for the stochastic exit model than for the deterministic exit model. Thus, we conclude that the deterministic exit model should be preferred.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlstrom, Chartles & Fuerst , Timothy & Paustian, Matthias, 2013. "Policy multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic versus stochastic duration," Bank of England working papers 475, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0475

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    2. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Benjamin Pugsley, 2006. "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 151-190, December.
    3. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2015. "Fiscal Stimulus and Distortionary Taxation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 894-920, October.
    4. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
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    More about this item


    Fiscal multiplier; fixed interest rates; New Keynesian model; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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