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Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration

  • Carlstrom, Charles T
  • Fuerst, Timothy S
  • Paustian, Matthias

    ()

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

This paper revisits the size of the fiscal multiplier. The experiment is a fiscal expansion under the assumption of a pegged nominal rate of interest. We demonstrate that a quantitatively important issue is the articulation of the exit from the policy experiment. If the monetary-fiscal expansion is stochastic with a mean duration of T periods, the fiscal multiplier can be unboundedly large. However, if the monetary-fiscal expansion is for a fixed T periods, the multiplier is much smaller. Our explanation rests on a Jensen’s inequality type argument: the deterministic multiplier is convex in duration, and the stochastic multiplier is a weighted average of the deterministic multipliers. The quantitative difference in the two multipliers also arises in a model with capital, and in the baseline nonlinear model. However, the differences between the two is less pronounced in the nonlinear models.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 1235.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1235
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  1. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," NBER Working Papers 15714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2010. "When is the government spending multiplier large?," CQER Working Paper 2010-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Pugsley, Benjamin, 2006. "The mistake of 1931: A general equilibrium analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Thorsten Drautzburg & Harald Uhlig, 2011. "Fiscal stimulus and distortionary taxation," CQER Working Paper 2011-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
  6. Ippei Fujiwara & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Nao Sudo & Yuki Teranishi, 2011. "Global Liquidity Trap," KIER Working Papers 780, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  7. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
  8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Benjamin Pugsley, 2006. "The Mistake of 1937: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 151-190, December.
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