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The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap

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  • Fujiwara, Ippei
  • Ueda, Kozo

Abstract

We consider the fiscal multiplier and spillover in an environment in which two countries are caught simultaneously in a liquidity trap. Using an optimizing two-country sticky price model, we show that the fiscal multiplier and spillover are contrary to those predicted in textbook economics. For the country with government expenditure, the fiscal multiplier exceeds one, the currency depreciates, and the terms of trade worsen. The fiscal spillover is negative if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one and positive if the parameter is greater than one. Incomplete stabilization of marginal costs due to the existence of the zero lower bound is a crucial factor in understanding the effects of fiscal policy in open economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2010. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 51, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:51
    Note: Published as: Fujiwara, Ippei and Kozo Ueda (2013), "The Fiscal Multiplier and Spillover in a Global Liquidity Trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 (7): 1264-1283.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B, 2016. "Exchange rate flexibility under the zero lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 52-69.
    2. Fernando Ulrich, 2011. "Fiscal Stimulus, Financial Ruin," Chapters,in: Institutions in Crisis, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller, 2017. "Fixed on Flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 586-632, August.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2016. "Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A global VAR approach," ROME Working Papers 201606, ROME Network.
    5. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    6. repec:csg:ajrcwp:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2012. "Fiscal multipliers under an interest rate peg of deterministic vs. stochastic duration," Working Paper 1215, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Fujiwara, Ippei & Teranishi, Yuki, 2017. "Financial frictions and policy cooperation: A case with monopolistic banking and staggered loan contracts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 19-43.
    9. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 247-277, July.
    10. Ippei Fujiwara, 2010. "Export shocks and the zero bound trap," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 63, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Richard Dennis, 2016. "Durations at the Zero Lower Bound," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    12. Flotho, Stefanie, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers In A Monetary Union Under The Zero–Lower–Bound Constraint," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 1171-1194, September.
    13. Takuji Fueki & Ichiro Fukunaga & Masashi Saito, 2011. "Assessing the Effects of Fiscal Policy in Japan with Estimated and Calibrated DSGE Models," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 11-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    14. David Cook & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Sharing the Burden: Monetary and Fiscal Responses to a World Liquidity Trap," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 190-228, July.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2017. "Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 103-182.
    16. Ippei Fujiwara & Yuki Teranishi, 2009. "Financial Stability in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2011. "Cooperative fiscal policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 465-486.
    18. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2011. "Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 443-462, May.
    19. Flotho, Stefanie, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union under the Zero Lower Bound constraint," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2018. "Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound," ADBI Working Papers 801, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    21. repec:fip:feddgm:00014 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2014. "Capital Controls, Global Liquidity Traps, and the International Policy Trilemma," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 158-189, January.
    23. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J., 2017. "Fixed on flexible rethink exchange rate regimes after the Great Recession," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86154, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Selim Elekdag & Dirk V Muir, 2014. "Das Public Kapital; How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 14/227, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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