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Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap

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  • Cook, David
  • Devereux, Michael B.

Abstract

We construct a model of the international transmission of 'liquidity trap' shocks, and examine the case for international coordination of fiscal policy to respond to the liquidity trap. Integrated financial markets tend to propagate liquidity traps. In a global environment, fiscal policy may be effective in raising GDP when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap, but it does so in a 'beggar thy neighbor' fashion; when one economy is in a liquidity trap, the cross country spillover effect of fiscal policy is negative. We examine the welfare optimizing policy response to a liquidity trap when countries coordinate on fiscal policy. Fiscal policy may be an effective tool in responding to a liquidity trap, although it is never optimal to use fiscal expansion sufficiently to fully eliminate a downturn. Moreover, there is little case for coordinated global fiscal expansion. For the most part, the country worst hit by a liquidity trap shock should use its own policies to respond, without much help from foreign policies.

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  • Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2011. "Optimal fiscal policy in a world liquidity trap," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 443-462, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:55:y:2011:i:4:p:443-462
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    1. Fiscal multipliers at the zero bound in an open economy
      by Tyler Cowen in Marginal Revolution on 2012-11-08 17:34:38

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    Cited by:

    1. Equiza-Goñi, Juan & Faraglia, Elisa & Oikonomou, Rigas, 2023. "Union debt management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    3. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2011. "Cooperative fiscal policy at the zero lower bound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 465-486.
    4. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B, 2016. "Exchange rate flexibility under the zero lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 52-69.
    5. Stefanie Flotho, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union under the Zero Lower Bound constraint," Discussion Paper Series 20, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jun 2012.
    6. David Cook & Michael B. Devereux, 2013. "Sharing the Burden: Monetary and Fiscal Responses to a World Liquidity Trap," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 190-228, July.
    7. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2017. "Does easing monetary policy increase financial instability?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 111-125.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Christopher J. Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2017. "Jump-Starting the Euro-Area Recovery: Would a Rise in Core Fiscal Spending Help the Periphery?," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 103-182.
    9. Müller, Gernot Johannes & Hettig, Thomas & Mueller, Gernot, 2015. "Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions (at the zero lower bound)," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Faccini, Renato & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2016. "International fiscal spillovers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 31-45.
    11. Michael B. Devereux & James Yetman, 2014. "Capital Controls, Global Liquidity Traps, and the International Policy Trilemma," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 158-189, January.
    12. Flotho, Stefanie, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers In A Monetary Union Under The Zero–Lower–Bound Constraint," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(6), pages 1171-1194, September.
    13. Séverine Menguy, 2016. "Optimal Budgetary Policies in New-Keynesian Models: Can they help when the Zero Lower Bound is binding?," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 43-98.
    14. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ueda, Kozo, 2013. "The fiscal multiplier and spillover in a global liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1264-1283.
    15. Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Dirk V Muir, 2014. "Das Public Kapital: How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?," IMF Working Papers 2014/227, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Stefanie Flotho, 2018. "Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union under the zero lower bound constraint," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 159-196, January.
    17. Daisuke Ida & Hirokuni Iiboshi, 2021. "The interaction of forward guidance in a two-country new Keynesian model," Papers 2103.12503, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    18. Hettig, Thomas & Müller, Gernot J., 2018. "Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions at the effective lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 80-98.
    19. Elekdag, Selim & Muir, Dirk & Wu, Yiqun, 2022. "Das Public Kapital: How much would higher German public investment help Germany and the euro area?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-251.
    20. David Cook & Michael B Devereux, 2019. "Fiscal Policy in a Currency Union at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(S1), pages 43-82, December.
    21. Stephen Anthony & Hamid Yahyaei, 2022. "Bringing Credibility Back to Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 41(3), pages 276-295, September.
    22. Tibor Tatay & Zsanett Orlovits & Zsuzsanna Novák, 2022. "Inhomogeneous Financial Markets in a Low Interest Rate Environment—A Cluster Analysis of Eurozone Economies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    23. Farhi, E. & Werning, I., 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers☆☆We thank the editors John Taylor and Harald Uhlig for detailed comments, as well as suggestions and comments by Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Jon Steinsson, and Michael Weber," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2417-2492, Elsevier.
    24. Flotho, Stefanie, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union under the Zero Lower Bound constraint," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.

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