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Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility

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  • Lemoine, Matthieu
  • Lindé, Jesper

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of expenditure-based fiscal consolidation when credibility as to whether the cuts will be long-lasting is imperfect. We contrast the impact limited credibility has when the consolidating country has the means to tailor monetary policy to its own needs, with the impact when the country is a small member of a currency union with a negligible effect on interest rates and on nominal exchange rates of the currency union. We find two key results. First, in the case of an independent monetary policy, the adverse impact of limited credibility is relatively small, and consolidation can be expected to reduce government debt at a relatively low output cost given that monetary policy provides more accommodation than it would under perfect credibility. Second, the lack of monetary accommodation under currency union membership implies that the output cost may be significantly larger, and that progress in reducing government debt in the short and medium term may be limited under imperfect credibility.

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  • Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 11404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11404
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Barbiero, Omar & Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Paradisi, Matteo, 2017. "The effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The effect of fiscal policy and forward guidance with preferences over wealth," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:184-201 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Union.; DSGE model; Front-Loaded vs. Gradual Consolidation; Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Sticky Prices and Wages;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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