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Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility

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  • Lemoine, Matthieu
  • Lindé, Jesper

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of expenditure-based fiscal consolidation when credibility as to whether the cuts will be long-lasting is imperfect. We contrast the impact limited credibility has when the consolidating country has the means to tailor monetary policy to its own needs, with the impact when the country is a small member of a currency union with a negligible effect on interest rates and on nominal exchange rates of the currency union. We find two key results. First, in the case of an independent monetary policy, the adverse impact of limited credibility is relatively small, and consolidation can be expected to reduce government debt at a relatively low output cost given that monetary policy provides more accommodation than it would under perfect credibility. Second, the lack of monetary accommodation under currency union membership implies that the output cost may be significantly larger, and that progress in reducing government debt in the short and medium term may be limited under imperfect credibility.

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  • Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal Consolidation Under Imperfect Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 11404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11404
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    2. Alesina, Alberto & Barbiero, Omar & Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Paradisi, Matteo, 2017. "The effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Adler, Gustavo & Lama, Ruy & Medina, Juan Pablo, 2019. "Foreign exchange intervention and inflation targeting: The role of credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-1.
    4. António Afonso & José Alves & João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "(Non-) Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a large sample," Working Papers REM 2021/0158, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2021. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers with preferences over safe assets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 1023-1040.
    6. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cavalcanti, Marco A.F.H. & Vereda, Luciano & Doctors, Rebeca de B. & Lima, Felipe C. & Maynard, Lucas, 2018. "The macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks under fiscal rules constrained by public debt sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 184-201.
    8. Richard McManus & Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2019. "Expansionary Contractions and Fiscal Free Lunches: Too Good To Be True?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 32-54, January.
    9. Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Uncertain policy promises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 459-474.
    10. Rannenberg, Ansgar, 2017. "The effect of fiscal policy and forward guidance with preferences over wealth," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168070, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency Union.; DSGE model; Front-Loaded vs. Gradual Consolidation; Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Sticky Prices and Wages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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