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Uncertain policy promises

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  • Haberis, Alex
  • Harrison, Richard
  • Waldron, Matt

Abstract

We develop a general method for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policy promises about which the private sector is uncertain. We illustrate the method in two applications to a central bank’s ‘forward guidance’ about the path for its policy rate. We demonstrate that uncertainty about forward guidance resulting from its potential to be imperfectly credible makes it much less powerful than in textbook models. In an application to the FOMC’s ‘threshold-based’ guidance, we show that increasing the precision of the conditions under which the policy rate ‘lifts off’ from the zero bound requires a lower unemployment threshold to deliver a given amount of stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • Haberis, Alex & Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Uncertain policy promises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 459-474.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:111:y:2019:i:c:p:459-474
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.11.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    2. Günter Coenen & Carlos Montes‐Galdón & Frank Smets, 2023. "Effects of State‐Dependent Forward Guidance, Large‐Scale Asset Purchases, and Fiscal Stimulus in a Low‐Interest‐Rate Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 825-858, June.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. de Groot, Oliver & Mazelis, Falk & Motto, Roberto & Ristiniemi, Annukka, 2021. "A toolkit for computing Constrained Optimal Policy Projections (COPPs)," Working Paper Series 2555, European Central Bank.
    5. Budianto, Flora & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2023. "Average inflation targeting and the interest rate lower bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Cecion, Martina & Coenen, Günter & Gerke, Rafael & Le Bihan, Hervé & Motto, Roberto & Aguilar, Pablo & Ajevskis, Viktors & Giesen, Sebastian & Albertazzi, Ugo & Gilbert, Niels & Al-Haschimi, Alexander, 2021. "The ECB’s price stability framework: past experience, and current and future challenges," Occasional Paper Series 269, European Central Bank.
    7. Julien Albertini & Valentin Jouvanceau & Stéphane Moyen, 2022. "State-Contingent Forward Guidance," Working Papers 2205, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:019 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Daisuke Ida & Hirokuni Iiboshi, 2021. "The interaction of forward guidance in a two-country new Keynesian model," Papers 2103.12503, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    11. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Research Discussion Papers 19, Bank of Finland.
    12. Cole, Stephen J. & Martinez-Garcia, Enrique & Sims, Eric, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers and Research 2023-04, Marquette University, Center for Global and Economic Studies and Department of Economics.
    13. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    14. Bonciani, Dario & Oh, Joonseok, 2021. "Optimal monetary policy mix at the zero lower bound," Bank of England working papers 945, Bank of England.
    15. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 393-423, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imperfect credibility; Forward guidance; Discretion; Uncertainty; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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