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Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations

  • Huixin Bi
  • Eric M. Leeper
  • Campbell Leith

The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilizing government debt. We argue that the conditions that could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the current economic environment.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/wp2013-26.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 13-26.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-26
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Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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  1. Benjamin Born & Johannes Pfeifer, 2013. "Policy Risk and the Business Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 4336, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Kuester, Keith & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco, 2011. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," CEPR Discussion Papers 8528, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2003. " Fiscal Policy in the New Neoclassical Synthesis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 911-29, December.
  4. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
  5. Luisa Lambertini & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for EMU," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 576, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Perotti, Roberto, 1996. "Fiscal Consolidation in Europe: Composition Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 105-10, May.
  7. Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1991. "Equilibrium in a Production Economy with an Income Tax," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 1091-1104, July.
  8. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
  9. Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
  10. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When? On the Political Economy of Reforms," NBER Working Papers 12049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Nora Traum & Shu-Chun Yang, 2010. "When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?," Caepr Working Papers 2010-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  12. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1994. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," NBER Working Papers 4810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1.
  14. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," Scholarly Articles 4553027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  15. Benjamin Keen & Yongsheng Wang, 2007. "What is a realistic value for price adjustment costs in New Keynesian models?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 789-793.
  16. Daron Acemoglu & Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2007. "Political Economy of Mechanisms," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000886, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  18. Den Haan, Wouter, 2008. "Comparison of Solutions to the Incomplete Markets Model with Aggregate Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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