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Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14

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  • Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung

Abstract

[Vorwort] Gemäß § 6 Absatz 1 des Gesetzes über die Bildung eines Sachverständigenrates zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung vom 14. August 1963, zuletzt geändert durch Artikel 128 der Verordnung vom 31. Oktober 20061, legt der Sachverständigenrat sein 50. Jahresgutachten vor. Das Jahresgutachten 2013/14 trägt den Titel: Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Im Herbst 2013 zeichnet sich eine wirtschaftliche Erholung ab. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion dürfte sich nach 2,2 % in diesem Jahr auf 3,0 % im kommenden Jahr beschleunigen. Aufgrund des schwachen Jahresbeginns wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt des Euro-Raums im Jahr 2013 voraussichtlich eine Veränderungsrate von -0,4 % aufweisen. Für das Jahr 2014 wird eine Zuwachsrate von 1,1 % erwartet. Der sich jetzt abzeichnende Aufschwung, der durch die sehr expansive Geldpolitik gestützt wird, ist allerdings angesichts der nach wie vor hohen Schuldenstände noch nicht selbsttragend. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird sich im Jahr 2014 die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland voraussichtlich aufhellen. Während für das Jahr 2013 lediglich ein Zuwachs des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,4 % erwartet wird, prognostiziert der Sachverständigenrat für das Jahr 2014 einen Zuwachs in Höhe von 1,6 %. Die aktuelle wirtschaftliche Situation und die relativ gute Position Deutschlands im Vergleich zu den Krisenländern des Euro-Raums scheinen vielfach den Blick auf die großen zukünftigen Herausforderungen verstellt zu haben. So gehen viele der derzeit diskutierten Maßnahmen, wie etwa die Mütterrente, die Aufstockung von niedrigen Renten oder großzügige Ausnahmen von der Rente mit 67, überwiegend zu Lasten der kommenden Generationen. Die künftigen Herausforderungen werden sogar um ein Vielfaches schwerer zu bewältigen sein, wenn die Reformen der Agenda 2010 verwässert oder in Teilbereichen gänzlich zurückgenommen werden. Gleiches gilt für neue wachstums- und beschäftigungsfeindliche Maßnahmen, wie den Mindestlohn oder Steuererhöhungen. (...)

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  • Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2013. "Gegen eine rückwärtsgewandte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2013/14," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201314, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwjg:201314
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