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Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis

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  • Merkl, Christian
  • Balleer, Almut
  • Gehrke, Britta
  • Lechthaler, Wolfgang

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of short-time work (i.e., government subsidized working time reductions) on unemployment and output fluctuations. The central question is whether short-time work saves jobs in recessions. In our baseline scenario the rule based component of short-time work (i.e., due to the existence of the institution) stabilizes unemployment fluctuations by 15% and output fluctuations by 7%. Given the small share of short-time work expenses in terms of GDP, the stabilization effects are large compared to other instruments such as the income tax system. By contrast, discretionary short-time work interventions (i.e., rule changes) do not have any statistically significant effect on unemployment. These effects are based on a SVAR estimation,which uses an elasticity of the German establishment panel for identification purposes. The model shows that non-effects of discretionary interventions (i.e., 100% deadweight) may be due to their low persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Merkl, Christian & Balleer, Almut & Gehrke, Britta & Lechthaler, Wolfgang, 2013. "Does Short-Time Work Save Jobs? A Business Cycle Analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79718, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79718
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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