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The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

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  • Bertoli, Simone

    (CERDI, Université Clermont Auvergne)

  • Brücker, Herbert

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)

  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

Abstract

The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.

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  • Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," IZA Discussion Papers 7170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7170
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    diversion; multiple destinations; international migration; expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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