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International Migration With Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967–2009

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  • Herbert Brücker
  • Philipp J. H. Schröder

Abstract

Temporary migration, though empirically relevant, is often ignored in formal models. This paper proposes a migration model with heterogeneous agents and persistent cross country income differentials that features temporary migration. In equilibrium there exists a positive relation between the stock of migrants and the income differential, while the net migration flow becomes zero. Consequently, existing empirical migration models, estimating net migration flows, instead of stocks, may be misspecified. This suspicion appears to be confirmed by our investigation of the cointegration relationships of German migration stocks and flows since 1967. We find that (i) panel-unit root tests reject the hypothesis that migration flows and the explanatory variables are integrated of the same order, while migration stocks and the explanatory variables are all I(1) variables, and (ii) the hypothesis of cointegration cannot be rejected for the stock model.
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  • Herbert Brücker & Philipp J. H. Schröder, 2012. "International Migration With Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967–2009," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 152-182, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:2:p:152-182
    DOI: j.1467-9701.2011.01426.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Economy Picking Up – Put Budget Surpluses To Good Use," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(20), pages 03-60, October.
    4. Thierry Baudassé & Rémi Bazillier, 2014. "Gender inequality and emigration: Push factor or selection process?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 139, pages 19-47.
    5. Florian Knauth & Jens Wrona, 2018. "There and Back Again: A Simple Theory of Planned Return Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 7388, CESifo.
    6. Herbert Brücker & Philipp JH Schröder, 2011. "Migration regulation contagion," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(3), pages 315-335, September.
    7. Kallandranis Christos & Karidis Socrates, 2014. "Assessing the Effect of the Consumer-Voter Sentiment on Tiebout-Like Migration: The EU 27 Case," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, June.
    8. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    9. Chletsos, Michael & Roupakias, Stelios, 2012. "Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece," MPRA Paper 39861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    12. Knauth, Florian & Wrona, Jens, 2018. "There and back again: A simple theory of planned return migration," DICE Discussion Papers 290, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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