Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach
The welfare effects of trade shocks depend crucially on the nature and magnitude of the costs workers face in moving between sectors. The existing trade literature does not directly address this, assuming perfect mobility or complete immobility, or adopting reduced-form approaches to estimation. We present a model of dynamic labor adjustment that does, and which is, moreover, consistent with a key empirical fact: that intersectoral gross flows greatly exceed net flows. Using an Euler-type equilibrium condition, we estimate the mean and the variance of workers' switching costs from the U.S. March Current Population Surveys. We estimate high values of both parameters, implying both slow adjustment of the economy, and sharp movements in wages, in response to a trade shock. Simulations of a trade liberalization indicate that despite the high estimated adjustment cost, in terms of lifetime welfare, the liberalization is Pareto-improving. The explanation for this surprising finding -- which would be missed by a reduced-form approach -- is that the high variance to costs ensures high rates of gross flow; this helps spread the liberalization's benefits around.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2007|
|Publication status:||published as Erhan Artuc & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-45, June.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007.
"Delay and Dynamics in Labor Market Adjustment: Simulation Results,"
Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers
0703, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Artuç, Erhan & Chaudhuri, Shubham & McLaren, John, 2008. "Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-13, May.
- Attanasio, Orazio & Goldberg, Pinelopi K. & Pavcnik, Nina, 2004.
"Trade reforms and wage inequality in Colombia,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 331-366, August.
- Orazio Attanasio & Pinelopi Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2003. "Trade Reforms and Wage Inequiality in Colombia," NBER Working Papers 9830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Attanasio, Orazio & Goldberg, Pinelopi & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "Trade Reforms and Wage Inequality in Colombia," CEPR Discussion Papers 4023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
- Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 1991. "Industrial Wage and Employment Determination in an Open Economy," NBER Chapters, in: Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market, pages 235-259 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1995.
"The career decisions of young men,"
559, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2003.
"The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions,"
NBER Working Papers
9585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, 01.
- Kennan,J. & Walker,J.R., 2003. "The effect of expected income on individual migration decisions," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Robertson, Raymond & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2002. "Labor adjustment costs in a destination country: the case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 29-54, February.
- John M. Abowd & Richard B. Freeman, 1991. "Immigration, Trade, and the Labor Market," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abow91-1.
- Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "Factor Market Search and the Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 325-355, April.
- Stephen Cameron & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: Theory," NBER Working Papers 13463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moscarini, Giuseppe & Thomsson, Kaj, 2006. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Working Papers 19, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Krueger, Alan B & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Efficiency Wages and the Inter-industry Wage Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 259-293, March.
- Magee, Christopher S.P. & Davidson, Carl & Matusz, Steven J., 2005.
"Trade, turnover, and tithing,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 157-176, May.
- Ljungqvist, Lars & Sargent, Thomas J, 2004.
"European Unemployment and Turbulence Revisited in a Matching Model,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 2004. "European Unemployment and Turbulence Revisited in a Matching Model," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 456-468, 04/05.
- Ana L. Revenga, 1992. "Exporting Jobs?The Impact of Import Competition on Employment and Wages in U. S. Manufacturing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 255-284.
- Gordon H. Hanson & Matthew J. Slaughter, 1999. "The Rybczynski Theorem, Factor-Price Equalization, and Immigration: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 7074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davidson, Carl & Martin, Lawrence & Matusz, Steven, 1999. "Trade and search generated unemployment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 271-299, August.
- Lori G. Kletzer, 2002. "Imports, Exports, and Jobs: What Does Trade Mean for Employment and Job Loss?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number iej, 06.
- Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001.
"Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
- Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donghoon Lee, 2005. "An Estimable Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Of Work, Schooling, And Occupational Choice," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 1-34, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13465. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.