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Trade liberalization and labor market dynamics

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  • Dix-Carneiro, Rafael

Abstract

I study trade-induced transitional dynamics by estimating a structural dynamic equilibrium model of the Brazilian labor market. The model features a multi-sector economy with overlapping generations, heterogeneous workers, endogenous accumulation of sector-specific experience and costly switching of sectors. The model's estimates yield median costs of mobility ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 times annual average wages, but a high dispersion across the population. In addition, sector-specific experience is imperfectly transferable across sectors, leading to additional barriers to mobility. Using the estimated model for counter-factual trade liberalization experiments, the main findings are: (1) there is a large labor market response following trade liberalization but the transition may take several years; (2) potential aggregate welfare gains are significantly mitigated due to the delayed adjustment; (3) trade-induced welfare effects depend on initial sector of employment and on worker demographics. The experiments also highlight the sensitivity of the transitional dynamics with respect to assumptions regarding the mobility of capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Dix-Carneiro, Rafael, 2011. "Trade liberalization and labor market dynamics," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-19, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201119
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57626/1/683498304.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Kerem Co?ar & Nezih Guner & James Tybout, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 625-663, March.
    2. Davidson, Carl & Martin, Lawrence & Matusz, Steven, 1999. "Trade and search generated unemployment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 271-299, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrei A Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2013. "The Global Labor Market Impact of Emerging Giants: A Quantitative Assessment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 479-519, August.
    2. Guren, Adam & Hémous, David & Olsen, Morten, 2015. "Trade dynamics with sector-specific human capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 126-147.
    3. Matthias Flückiger & Markus Ludwig, 2015. "Chinese export competition, declining exports and adjustments at the industry and regional level in Europe," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 1120-1151, August.
    4. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
    5. Ornelas, Emanuel, 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Labor Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8805, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:mie:wpaper:6237 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mariya Mileva & Sebastian Braun & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "The Effects of Globalization on Wage Inequality: New Insights from a Dynamic Trade Model with Heterogeneous Firms," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 49, WWWforEurope.

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