IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1831.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trade, education, and the shrinking middle class

Author

Listed:
  • Blanchard, Emily
  • Willmann, Gerald

Abstract

We develop a new model of trade in which educational institutions drive comparative advantage and determine the distribution of human capital within and across countries. Our framework exploits a multiplicity of sectors and the continuous support of human capital choices to demonstrate that freer trade can induce crowding out of the middle occupations towards the skill acquisition extremes in one country, and simultaneous expansion of middle-income industries in another. Individual gains from trade may be non-monotonic in workers' ability, and middle ability agents can lose the most from trade liberalization. Comparing trade and education policy, we find that targeted education subsidies are more effective than tariffs as a means to preserve middle class jobs, while uniform educational subsidies have no effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2013. "Trade, education, and the shrinking middle class," Kiel Working Papers 1831, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1831
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/70253/1/73734055X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Maggi & Gene M. Grossman, 2000. "Diversity and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1255-1275, December.
    2. George Psacharopoulos, 1985. "Returns to Education: A Further International Update and Implications," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 20(4), pages 583-604.
    3. Baumgarten, Daniel & Geishecker, Ingo & Görg, Holger, 2013. "Offshoring, tasks, and the skill-wage pattern," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 132-152.
    4. Volker Nocke & Stephen Yeaple, 2008. "An Assignment Theory of Foreign Direct Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 529-557.
    5. Findlay, Ronald & Kierzkowski, Henryk, 1983. "International Trade and Human Capital: A Simple General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(6), pages 957-978, December.
    6. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    7. Monika Mrázová & J Peter Neary, 2019. "Selection Effects with Heterogeneous Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1294-1334.
    8. V.N. Balasubramanyam, 2008. "Foreign Direct Investment," Chapters, in: Amitava Krishna Dutt & Jaime Ros (ed.), International Handbook of Development Economics, Volumes 1 & 2, volume 0, chapter 39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. A. Kerem Co?ar & Nezih Guner & James Tybout, 2016. "Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 625-663, March.
    10. Card, David & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Wage dispersion, returns to skill, and black-white wage differentials," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 319-361, October.
    11. Pol Antràs & Luis Garicano & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "Offshoring in a Knowledge Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 121(1), pages 31-77.
    12. Matilde Bombardini & Giovanni Gallipoli & German Pupato, 2012. "Skill Dispersion and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2327-2348, August.
    13. Daniel C. Hickman & William W. Olney, 2011. "Globalization and Investment in Human Capital," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 64(4), pages 654-672, July.
    14. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    15. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    16. Rosario Crinò, 2010. "Service Offshoring and White-Collar Employment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(2), pages 595-632.
    17. David Atkin, 2016. "Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(8), pages 2046-2085, August.
    18. Jung J. & Mercenier J., 2008. "A Simple Model of Offshore Outsourcing,Technology Upgrading and Welfare," Working Papers ERMES 0808, ERMES, University Paris 2.
    19. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    20. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    21. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    22. Dollar, David & Kleineberg, Tatjana & Kraay, Aart, 2016. "Growth still is good for the poor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 68-85.
    23. Ingo Geishecker & Holger Görg, 2013. "Services offshoring and wages: evidence from micro data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 124-146, January.
    24. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    25. Arnaud Costinot & Jonathan Vogel, 2010. "Matching and Inequality in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 747-786, August.
    26. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    27. Falvey, Rod & Greenaway, David & Silva, Joana, 2010. "Trade liberalisation and human capital adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 230-239, July.
    28. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    29. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2016. "Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 728-741, October.
    30. Petia Topalova, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Indian Districts," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 291-336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Ravallion, Martin, 2010. "The Developing World's Bulging (but Vulnerable) Middle Class," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 445-454, April.
    32. Elhanan Helpman & Oleg Itskhoki & Stephen Redding, 2010. "Inequality and Unemployment in a Global Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(4), pages 1239-1283, July.
    33. Juhn, Chinhui & Murphy, Kevin M & Pierce, Brooks, 1993. "Wage Inequality and the Rise in Returns to Skill," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 410-442, June.
    34. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2006. "The Polarization of the U.S. Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 189-194, May.
    35. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    36. Vogel, Jonathan, 2007. "Institutions and moral hazard in open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 495-514, April.
    37. Franziska Ohnsorge & Daniel Trefler, 2007. "Sorting It Out: International Trade with Heterogeneous Workers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 868-892, October.
    38. Bound, John & Johnson, George, 1992. "Changes in the Structure of Wages in the 1980's: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 371-392, June.
    39. Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
    40. Eric V. Edmonds & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2009. "Child Labor and Schooling in A Globalizing World: Some Evidence from Urban India," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(2-3), pages 498-507, 04-05.
    41. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2005. "A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-20, January.
    42. Anderson, James E., 2011. "The specific factors continuum model, with implications for globalization and income risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 174-185.
    43. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    44. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    45. Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2011. "Escaping a protectionist rut: Policy mechanisms for trade reform in a democracy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 72-85, September.
    46. Alan S. Blinder, 2009. "How Many US Jobs Might be Offshorable?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(2), pages 41-78, April.
    47. Brian K. Kovak, 2013. "Regional Effects of Trade Reform: What Is the Correct Measure of Liberalization?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1960-1976, August.
    48. Davidson, Carl & Sly, Nicholas, 2014. "A simple model of globalization, schooling and skill acquisition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 209-227.
    49. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-839, December.
    50. Ram, Rati, 1996. "Level of Development and Rates of Return to Schooling: Some Estimates from Multicountry Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 839-857, July.
    51. Alan S. Blinder & Alan B. Krueger, 2013. "Alternative Measures of Offshorability: A Survey Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 97-128.
    52. Bombardini, Matilde & Gallipoli, Giovanni & Pupato, Germán, 2014. "Unobservable skill dispersion and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 317-329.
    53. Paula Bustos, 2005. "The impact of trade liberalization on skill upgrading. Evidence from Argentina," Economics Working Papers 1189, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2011.
    54. repec:hrv:faseco:4784031 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "The Economics of Modern Manufacturing: Technology, Strategy, and Organization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 511-528, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "Globalization, the skill premium, and income distribution: the role of selection into entrepreneurship," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 633-668, August.
    2. Jaewon Jung, 2019. "Technology, skill, and growth in a global economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(3), pages 609-641, October.
    3. Haruka Yane, 2019. "Global value chains and labor markets," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 177-200, February.
    4. Arnaud Costinot & Jonathan Vogel & Su Wang, 2013. "An Elementary Theory of Global Supply Chains," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 109-144.
    5. Gu, Grace Weishi & Malik, Samreen & Pozzoli, Dario & Rocha, Vera, 2016. "Trade Induced Skill Upgrading: Lessons from the Danish and Portuguese Experiences," IZA Discussion Papers 10035, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Grafström, Jonas, 2017. "Technological Change and Wage Polarization – The Illiberal Populist Response," Ratio Working Papers 294, The Ratio Institute.
    7. Yang, Han, 2019. "Dynamic Trade, Education and Intergenerational Inequality," MPRA Paper 96054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andrea Moro & Peter Norman, 2019. "Endogenous Comparative Advantage," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 1088-1124, July.
    9. Emily Blanchard & William W. Olney, 2013. "Globalization and Human Capital Investment: How Export Composition Drives Educational Attainment," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Mar 2015.
    10. Kunieda, Takuma & Nishimura, Kazuo & Shibata, Akihisa, 2018. "Specializations, financial constraints, and income distribution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 3-14.
    11. Egger, Hartmut & Fischer, Christian, 2020. "Increasing resistance to globalization: The role of trade in tasks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Taiji Furusawa & Hideo Konishi & Duong Lam Anh Tran, 2020. "International Trade and Income Inequality," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(3), pages 993-1026, July.
    13. Blanchard, Emily & Willmann, Gerald, 2018. "Unequal Gains, Prolonged Pain: A Model of Protectionist Overshooting and Escalation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Kohl, Miriam, 2020. "Redistribution, selection, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    16. Yang, Han, 2020. "Dynamic Trade, Education and Intergenerational Inequality," MPRA Paper 99976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jaewon Jung, 2021. "Economic Transformation and Sustainable Development through Multilateral Free Trade Agreements," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, February.
    18. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2020. "Automation, globalisation and relative wages: An empirical analysis of winners and losers," MERIT Working Papers 2020-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    19. Lu, Siting, 2020. "Status Signalling with Luxury and Cultural Goods," MPRA Paper 102545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Falvey, Rod & Greenaway, David & Silva, Joana, 2010. "Trade liberalisation and human capital adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 230-239, July.
    21. Jaewon Jung, 2020. "Institutional Quality, FDI, and Productivity: A Theoretical Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, August.
    22. Jaewon Jung, 2015. "Technology, Skill, and Growth in a Global Economy," THEMA Working Papers 2015-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    23. Blanchard, Emily J. & Olney, William W., 2017. "Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-183.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Liu, Runjuan & Trefler, Daniel, 2019. "A sorted tale of globalization: White collar jobs and the rise of service offshoring," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 105-122.
    3. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Chong Xiang, 2018. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 981-1028, September.
    4. Lee, Eunhee, 2020. "Trade, inequality, and the endogenous sorting ofheterogeneous workers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Monte, Ferdinando, 2011. "Skill bias, trade, and wage dispersion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 202-218, March.
    6. Basco, Sergi & Mestieri, Martí, 2013. "Heterogeneous trade costs and wage inequality: A model of two globalizations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 393-406.
    7. Blanchard, Emily J. & Olney, William W., 2017. "Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 165-183.
    8. Arnaud Costinot & Jonathan Vogel, 2010. "Matching and Inequality in the World Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 747-786, August.
    9. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    10. Baumgarten, Daniel & Irlacher, Michael & Koch, Michael, 2020. "Offshoring and non-monotonic employment effects across industries in general equilibrium," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    11. Guido Matias Cortes & Diego M. Morris, 2019. "Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the U.S. and Mexico," Working Paper series 19-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    12. Artuç, Erhan & McLaren, John, 2015. "Trade policy and wage inequality: A structural analysis with occupational and sectoral mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 278-294.
    13. Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "Globalization, the skill premium, and income distribution: the role of selection into entrepreneurship," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 633-668, August.
    14. Guido Matias Cortes1 & Diego M. Morris, 2020. "Are routine jobs moving south? Evidence from changes in the occupational structure of employment in the USA and Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    16. Dix-Carneiro, Rafael & Kovak, Brian K., 2019. "Margins of labor market adjustment to trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 125-142.
    17. Elhanan Helpman, 2016. "Globalization and Wage Inequality," NBER Working Papers 22944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fries, Jan, 2014. "Age and skill bias of trade liberalisation? Heterogeneous employment effects of EU Eastern Enlargement," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-113, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "The Impact Of Chinese Import Competition On The Local Structure Of Employment And Wages: Evidence From France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 411-441, June.
    20. Gueyon Kim & Dohyeon Lee, 2020. "Offshoring and Segregation by Skill: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2020-073, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade and Education Policy; Skill Acquisition; Education; Income Distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.