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Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA

Listed author(s):
  • Shushanik Hakobyan

    (Fordham University)

  • John McLaren

    (University of Virginia)

Using U.S. Census data for 1990 to 2000, we estimate effects of NAFTAon U.S.wages.We look for effects of the agreement by industry and by geography, measuring each industry's vulnerability to Mexican imports and each locality's dependence on vulnerable industries. We find evidence of both effects, dramatically lowering wage growth for blue-collar workers in the most affected industries and localities (even for service-sector workers in affected localities, whose jobs do not compete with imports). These distributional effects are much larger than aggregate welfare effects estimated by other authors.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00587
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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 98 (2016)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 728-741

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:98:y:2016:i:4:p:728-741
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Gordon H. Hanson, 2007. "Globalization, Labor Income, and Poverty in Mexico," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 417-456 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Petia Topalova, 2007. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality: Evidence from Indian Districts," NBER Chapters,in: Globalization and Poverty, pages 291-336 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fukao, Kyoji & Okubo, Toshihiro & Stern, Robert M., 2003. "An econometric analysis of trade diversion under NAFTA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-24, March.
  4. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
  5. Harrison, Ann & McLaren, John & McMillan, Margaret S., 2010. "Recent findings on trade and inequality:," IFPRI discussion papers 1047, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  6. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 2005. "NAFTA Revisited: Achievements and Challenges," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 332, November.
  7. Sethupathy, Guru, 2013. "Offshoring, wages, and employment: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 73-97.
  8. Artuç, Erhan & Chaudhuri, Shubham & McLaren, John, 2008. "Delay and dynamics in labor market adjustment: Simulation results," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 1-13, May.
  9. Hosios, Arthur J, 1990. "Factor Market Search and the Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 325-355, April.
  10. Mary E. Burfisher & Sherman Robinson & Karen Thierfelder, 2001. "The Impact of NAFTA on the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 125-144, Winter.
  11. Anil Kumar, 2006. "Did NAFTA spur Texas exports?," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar, pages 3-7.
  12. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
  13. Robert C. Feenstra & John Romalis & Peter K. Schott, 2002. "U.S. Imports, Exports, and Tariff Data, 1989-2001," NBER Working Papers 9387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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