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Phase out tariffs, phase in trade?

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  • Besedes, Tibor
  • Kohl, Tristan
  • Lake, James

Abstract

An important stylized fact in the empirical Free Trade Agreement (FTA) literature is that member trade flows gradually increase over time following an FTA. Baier and Bergstrand (2007) suggest two explanations: tariff phase-out and delayed pass-through of tariffs into import prices. We examine these hypotheses using 1989–2016 U.S. import growth and product-level data on the tariff phase-out negotiated under NAFTA and the earlier Canada-U.S. FTA. We do not find evidence supporting either hypothesis. While products receiving tariff cuts do show delayed import growth relative to products with unchanged tariffs, the delay in import growth does not correspond to delays in the timing of tariff cuts. We also show that tariff cuts are fully and immediately passed through to U.S. importers as there are virtually no changes in the prices received by exporters either in the short run or the long run. Rather, we find evidence for an important role played by NAFTA tariff cuts reducing the impact of frictions that, in turn, allow for a spatial expansion of imports across the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Besedes, Tibor & Kohl, Tristan & Lake, James, 2020. "Phase out tariffs, phase in trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s0022199620301008
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103385
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    4. Alan V. Deardorff & Rishi R. Sharma, 2021. "Exempted sectors in free trade agreements," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 284-310, February.
    5. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Hansoo Choi & Julián P. Díaz, 2022. "The causal effect of free trade agreements on the trade margins: Product‐level evidence from geographically distant partners," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1453-1489, April.
    6. Carter Mix & George Alessandria, 2017. "The Global Trade Slowdown: A Dynamic Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 907, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2019. "Trade Policy is Real News: A quantitative analysis of past, current, and future changes in U.S. trade barriers," 2019 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2021. "Trade Policy is Real News: Theory and Evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 1330, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Tobias Sytsma, 2021. "Rules of origin and trade preference utilization among least developed countries," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 701-718, October.
    11. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Richard Chisik & Sara Rohany Tabatabai, 2022. "International sourcing, complementary inputs, and the structure of trade agreements: Deep, shallow, narrow, and wide," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(4), pages 1782-1805, October.
    13. Andrea Bernini & Olaf J. de Groot, 2024. "The impact of trade on income inequality in Mexico," Economics Series Working Papers 1036, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Fernandes, Ana M. & Forero, Alejandro & Maemir, Hibret & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2023. "Are trade preferences a Panacea? The export impact of the African growth and Opportunity Act," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    15. Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & Kyae Lim Kwon, 2021. "When are Tariff Cuts Not Enough? Heterogeneous Effects of Trade Preferences for the Least Developed Countries," Working Papers 2106E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    16. Lee, Maxine J., 2021. "The effect of import competition on educational attainment at the postsecondary level: Evidence from NAFTA," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
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    19. Cheng, Sirui & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Qingfeng, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm resilience in China: Evidence from the Sino-US trade war," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free trade agreements; CUSFTA; NAFTA; Trade; Phase-out; Tariffs; Extensive margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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