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The Impact of NAFTA on Prices and Competition: Evidence from Mexican Manufacturing Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Brugués
  • Ayumu Ken Kikkawa
  • Yuan Mei
  • Pablo Robles

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their markups in response to a favorable competitive environment due to declines in U.S. tariffs.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Brugués & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Yuan Mei & Pablo Robles, 2025. "The Impact of NAFTA on Prices and Competition: Evidence from Mexican Manufacturing Plants," NBER Working Papers 33516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33516
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Banh, Thi Hang & Caselli, Mauro, 2022. "Foreign Competition, Skill Premium, and Product Quality: Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican Plants," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1162, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Besedes, Tibor & Kohl, Tristan & Lake, James, 2020. "Phase out tariffs, phase in trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kenta Yamanouchi, 2024. "How does the reform of rules of origin affect firm performance in importing countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 837-856, February.
    5. Crowley, Meredith A. & Han, Lu & Prayer, Thomas, 2024. "The pro-competitive effects of trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    6. Akira Ishide, 2025. "Allocative Inefficiency during a Sudden Stop," CARF F-Series CARF-F-602, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Khan, Nazmus Sadat, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of NAFTA," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-16.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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