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Phase out tariffs, phase in trade?

Author

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  • Tibor Besedes
  • Tristan Kohl
  • James Lake

Abstract

What causes U.S. trade with Mexico and Canada to continue growing faster, for up to a decade, relative to countries with which the U.S. does not have a free trade agreement? Baier and Bergstrand (2007) suggest that tariff phase-out and delayed pass-through of tariffs into import prices could cause such prolonged differential import growth. We examine how tariff cuts negotiated under the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) affected U.S. import growth in 1989{2016 using detailed product-level data on tariff phase-out in the original treaties. We find essentially no evidence for the tariff phase-out or delayed pass through explanations. Rather, we find evidence for an important role played by NAFTA tariff cuts reducing the impacts of frictions at various extensive margins.

Suggested Citation

  • Tibor Besedes & Tristan Kohl & James Lake, 2019. "Phase out tariffs, phase in trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7614, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7614
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    2. Flach, Lisandra & Gräf, Fabian, 2020. "The impact of trade agreements on world export prices," Munich Reprints in Economics 70372, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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    4. Sang‐Wook (Stanley) Cho & Hansoo Choi & Julián P. Díaz, 2022. "The causal effect of free trade agreements on the trade margins: Product‐level evidence from geographically distant partners," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(4), pages 1453-1489, April.
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    8. Anca D. Cristea & Anna Miromanova, 2022. "Firm‐level trade effects of WTO accession: Evidence from Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 237-281, February.
    9. Jue Wang & Shi Wang & Hua Wang & Yan Song, 2022. "A Numerical Simulation Analysis Framework of Sustainable Regional Economic Cooperation: A Case Study of the New Silk Road Economic Belt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Ross Jestrab, 2024. "Importer market power and preferential trade agreements: Empirical evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 993-1038, August.
    11. Cheng, Sirui & Hua, Xiuping & Wang, Qingfeng, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm resilience in China: Evidence from the Sino-US trade war," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Feodora Teti, 2020. "30 Years of Trade Policy: Evidence from 5.7 Billion Tariffs," ifo Working Paper Series 334, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Carter Mix & George Alessandria, 2017. "The Global Trade Slowdown: A Dynamic Approach," 2017 Meeting Papers 907, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. George Alessandria & Carter Mix, 2019. "Trade Policy is Real News: A quantitative analysis of past, current, and future changes in U.S. trade barriers," 2019 Meeting Papers 545, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Greenland, Andrew & Ion, Mihai & Lopresti, John & Schott, Peter K., 2024. "Using equity market reactions to infer exposure to trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Khan, Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian, Armen, 2021. "How does trade respond to anticipated tariff changes? Evidence from NAFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
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    18. Andrea Bernini & Olaf J. de Groot, 2024. "The impact of trade on income inequality in Mexico," Economics Series Working Papers 1036, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Fernandes, Ana M. & Forero, Alejandro & Maemir, Hibret & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2023. "Are trade preferences a Panacea? The export impact of the African growth and Opportunity Act," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    free trade agreements; CUSFTA; NAFTA; trade; phase-out; tariffs; extensive margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

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