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The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment

  • Justin R. Pierce
  • Peter K. Schott

This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the EU, where there was no change in policy.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18655.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18655.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18655
Note: ITI
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  1. Philippe Aghion & Jing Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha Du & Ann Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2015. "Industrial Policy and Competition," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 1-32, October.
  2. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Gˆrg & Zhihong Yu, 2009. "Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm-level Data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 863-891, December.
  3. Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2009. "A Concordance Between Ten-Digit U.S. Harmonized System Codes and SIC/NAICS Product Classes and Industries," Working Papers 09-41, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2011. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," NBER Working Papers 17524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Xue Bai & Kala Krishna & Hong Ma, 2015. "How You Export Matters: Export Mode, Learning and Productivity in China," NBER Working Papers 21164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Jing J. Cai & Mathias Dewatripont & Luosha L. Du & Ann A. Harrison & Patrick Legros, 2015. "Industrial policy and competition," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/229424, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Barry T. Hirsch & David A. MacPherson, 2003. "Union Membership and Coverage Database from the Current Population Survey: Note," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(2), pages 349-354, January.
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