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Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization

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  • Schott, Peter
  • Greenland, Anew
  • Ion, Mihai
  • Lopresti, John

Abstract

We propose a method for identifying exposure to changes in trade policy based on asset prices that has several advantages over standard measures: it encompasses all avenues of exposure, it is natively firm-level, it yields estimates for both goods and service producers, and it can be used to study reductions in difficult-to-quantify non-tariff-barriers in a way that controls naturally for broader macroeconomic shocks. Applying our method to two well-studied US trade liberalizations provides new insight into service sector responses to trade liberalizations as well as dramatically different responses among small versus large firms, even within narrow industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Schott, Peter & Greenland, Anew & Ion, Mihai & Lopresti, John, 2022. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 17387, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17387
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alan Feng & Haishi Li & Yulin Wang, 2023. "We Are All in the Same Boat: Cross-Border Spillovers of Climate Shocks through International Trade and Supply Chain," CESifo Working Paper Series 10402, CESifo.
    4. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Cristina Tello-Trillo, 2022. "Trade Liberalization and Labor-Market Outcomes: Evidence from US Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 22-42, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. Grace Gu & Samreen Malik & Dario Pozzoli & Vera Rocha, 2022. "Chinese import competition, offshoring and servitization," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 901-928, April.
    6. Laura Alfaro & Anusha Chari & Andrew N. Greenland & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 26950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Haoyuan Ding & Kees G. Koedijk & Tong Qi & Yanqing Shen, 2022. "U.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3907-3932, December.
    8. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Suwanprasert, Wisarut, 2022. "The international spillover effects of US trade policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    11. Chen, Tao & Gao, Huasheng & Wang, Yuxi, 2021. "Tariff uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from the U.S.–China Permanent Normal Trade Relation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 12-27.
    12. Tao Chen & Chen Lin & Xiang Shao, 2022. "Globalization and U.S. Corporate Tax Policies: Evidence from Import Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 6145-6162, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China shock; Event study; Pntr; Abnormal returns; Cusfta;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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