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Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

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  • Esposito, Federico
  • Bianconi, Marcelo
  • Sammon, Marco

Abstract

We examine how trade policy uncertainty is reflected in stock returns. Our identification strategy exploits quasi-experimental variation in exposure to trade policy uncertainty arising from Congressional votes to revoke China's preferential tariff treatment between 1990 and 2001. More exposed industries commanded a risk premium of 6% per year. The risk premium was larger in sectors less protected from globalization, and more reliant on inputs from China. More exposed industries also had a larger drop in stock prices when the uncertainty began, and more volatile returns around key policy dates. Moreover, the effects of policy uncertainty on expected cash-flows, investors' forecast errors, and import competition from China cannot explain our results.

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  • Esposito, Federico & Bianconi, Marcelo & Sammon, Marco, 2020. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 99874, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:99874
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Shijun & Jiao, Yang & Xu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Federico Esposito, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0833, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    3. Esposito, Federico, 2020. "Demand Risk and Diversification through International Trade," MPRA Paper 100865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2019. "Trade Networks and Firm Value: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," CEPR Discussion Papers 14173, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mary Amiti & Sang Hoon Kong & David Weinstein, 2020. "The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment," NBER Working Papers 27114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2020. "Share price reactions to tariff imposition announcements in the Trump era - An event study of the trade conflict," Working Papers Dissertations 59, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    7. Andrew N. Greenland & Mihai Ion & John W. Lopresti & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 27510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    Keywords

    Trade policy; uncertainty; risk premium; China shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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