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Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration

Author

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  • Alejandro Graziano
  • Kyle Handley
  • Nuno Limão

Abstract

We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) reduce bilateral export values and trade participation. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products and asymmetric for UK and EU exporters. We estimate that a persistent doubling of the probability of Brexit at the average disagreement tariff of 4.5% lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by 15 log points on average, and more so for EU than UK exporters. Neither believed a trade war was likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," NBER Working Papers 25334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25334
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    Cited by:

    1. Campos, Nauro F., 2019. "B for Brexit: A Survey of the Economics Academic Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 12134, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Mizen, Paul & Smietanka, Pawel & Thwaites, Gregory, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England working papers 818, Bank of England.
    3. Tarek Alexander Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2020. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-332, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Hassan, Tarek Alexander & Hollander, Stephan & Tahoun, Ahmed & van Lent, Laurence, 2019. "The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 14253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Kaan Celebi, 2021. "Quo Vadis, Britain? – Implications of the Brexit process on the UK’s real economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 267-307, May.
    6. Costa, Rui & Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen, 2019. "Trade and Worker Deskilling," CEPR Discussion Papers 13768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Federico Esposito & Marcelo Bianconi & Marco Sammon, 2020. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0834, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    8. Lisandra Flach & Feodora Teti & Lena Wiest & Margherita Atzei, 2020. "EU27 and the UK: Product Dependencies and the Implications of Brexit," EconPol Policy Brief 32, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Di Ubaldo, Mattia & Borchert, Ingo, 2020. "Go ahead and trade: The effect of uncertainty removal in the EU’s GSP scheme," Papers WP691, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Relationship stickiness, international trade, and economic uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 15609, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Nicolo' Tamberi, 2020. "Export-platform FDI and Brexit Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0320, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Mustapha Douch, 2020. "The effect of policy uncertainty on South Africa, SADC, and beyond," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-59, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Yohannes Ayele & L. Alan Winters, 2020. "How Do Exchange Rate Depreciations Affect Trade and Prices? A Survey and Lessons about UK Experience after June 2016," Working Paper Series 1420, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    14. Marcelo Bianconi & Federico Esposito & Marco Sammon, 2019. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0830, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    15. Rolf J. Langhammer & Lisandra Flach & Feodora Teti & Lena Wiest & Margherita Atzei & Lisa Scheckenhofer & Joachim Wuermeling & Carsten Hefeker & Friedemann Kainer & Philipp Harms & Michael Kaeding, 2020. "Brexit-Finale: Das letzte Ringen um einen Deal," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(12), pages 03-27, December.
    16. Javorcik, Beata & Kett, Benjamin & O'Kane, Layla & Stapleton, Katherine, 2019. "Unravelling Trade Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 14222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Meredith A. Crowley & Oliver Exton & Lu Han, 2020. "The Looming Threat of Tariff Hikes: Entry into Exporting under Trade Agreement Renegotiation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 547-551, May.
    18. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Beata Javorcik & Ben Kett & Layla O'Kane, 2019. "The Brexit Vote and Labour Demand: Evidence from Online Job Postings," Economics Series Working Papers 878, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Douch, Mustaph & Huw Edwards, T., 2021. "The Brexit policy shock: Were UK services exports affected, and when?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 248-263.
    21. Patrizia Casadei & Simona Iammarino, 2021. "Trade policy shocks in the UK textile and apparel value chain: Firm perceptions of Brexit uncertainty," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(2), pages 262-285, June.
    22. George A. Alessandria & Shafaat Y. Khan & Armen Khederlarian, 2019. "Taking Stock of Trade Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Pre-WTO Accession," NBER Working Papers 25965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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