IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cje/issued/v52y2019i3p1248-1288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exports, investment and policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Greenland
  • Mihai Ion
  • John Lopresti

Abstract

Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Greenland & Mihai Ion & John Lopresti, 2019. "Exports, investment and policy uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1248-1288, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:52:y:2019:i:3:p:1248-1288
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/caje.12400
    Download Restriction: access restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/caje.12400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristian Behrens & Gregory Corcos & Giordano Mion, 2013. "Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 702-709, May.
    2. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    3. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    4. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
    5. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    6. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    7. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    8. Kesternich, Iris & Schnitzer, Monika, 2010. "Who is afraid of political risk? Multinational firms and their choice of capital structure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 208-218, November.
    9. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    10. Nicola Cetorelli & Philip E. Strahan, 2006. "Finance as a Barrier to Entry: Bank Competition and Industry Structure in Local U.S. Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 437-461, February.
    11. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    12. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    13. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    14. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
    15. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 19376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. G. M.P. Swann, 2009. "The Economics of Innovation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13211.
    17. Klapper, Leora & Laeven, Luc & Rajan, Raghuram, 2006. "Entry regulation as a barrier to entrepreneurship," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 591-629, December.
    18. Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2009. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 20-32, February.
    19. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Feng, Michael, 2014. "Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 339-350.
    20. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    21. Dutt, Pushan & Mihov, Ilian & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2013. "The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 204-219.
    22. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    23. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2007. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 837-873, May.
    25. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    26. Taglioni, Daria & Zavacka, Veronika, 2012. "Innocent bystanders : how foreign uncertainty shocks harm exporters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6226, The World Bank.
    27. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    28. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    29. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    30. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Amit Kumar Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik & Petia Topalova, 2010. "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1727-1767.
    31. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    32. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    33. Ossa, Ralph, 2015. "Why trade matters after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 266-277.
    34. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    35. Desai, Mihir A. & Fritz Foley, C. & Hines Jr., James R., 2008. "Capital structure with risky foreign investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 534-553, June.
    36. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2012. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 134-146.
    37. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," Post-Print hal-03579844, HAL.
    39. David Hummels & Peter J. Klenow, 2005. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 704-723, June.
    40. Armelius, Hanna & Hull, Isaiah & Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna, 2017. "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 31-34.
    41. Nancy Stokey, 2016. "Wait-and See: Investment Options under Policy Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 246-265, July.
    42. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    43. Feenstra, Robert & Kee, Hiau Looi, 2008. "Export variety and country productivity: Estimating the monopolistic competition model with endogenous productivity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 500-518, March.
    44. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty shocks on labor market dynamics and extensive vs. intensive margins of adjustment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    2. Atsu, Francis & Adams, Samuel, 2021. "Energy consumption, finance, and climate change: Does policy uncertainty matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 490-501.
    3. Christian Dreyer & Oliver Schulz, 2023. "Policy uncertainty and corporate investment: public versus private firms," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 1863-1898, July.
    4. Ganwen Zheng & Songping Zhu, 2021. "Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Macro Control Policy on Output and Technological Progress under Economic Policy Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    6. Rosenfeld, Martin T. W. & Stefansky, Andreas (ed.), 2021. ""Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" aus raumwissenschaftlicher Sicht," Arbeitsberichte der ARL, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft, volume 30, number 30.
    7. Baley, Isaac & Veldkamp, Laura & Waugh, Michael, 2020. "Can global uncertainty promote international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Alejandro G Graziano & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2021. "Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(635), pages 1150-1185.
    9. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Zhang, Li & Hu, Shiwei, 2023. "Foreign uncertainty and domestic exporter dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    11. Songping Zhu & Gaofeng Yu, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Industrial Output: The Regulatory Role of Technological Progress," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. Huizheng Liu & Jingyi Zhang & Qi Han & Wenshen Pan & Muhammad Afaq Haider Jafri, 2022. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Stability of Enterprises Embedded in a Global Value Chain," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-3.
    14. Liu Qing & Zhang Yanchao & Li Langxing & Li Shuaihang, 2021. "The Interactive Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Credit Constraint Heterogeneity on Firms’ Export Margins: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(6), pages 575-607, December.
    15. Clougherty, Joseph A. & Zhang, Nan, 2023. "Antitrust policy and inward FDI: The impact of policy risk and uncertainty on U.S. inward-FDI flows," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4).
    16. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    17. Rosenfeld, Martin T. W., 2021. "Wie sind die mitteldeutsche Metropolregion und ihre Aktivitäten zu bewerten?," Arbeitsberichte der ARL: Aufsätze, in: Rosenfeld, Martin T. W. & Stefansky, Andreas (ed.), "Metropolregion Mitteldeutschland" aus raumwissenschaftlicher Sicht, volume 30, pages 194-206, ARL – Akademie für Raumentwicklung in der Leibniz-Gemeinschaft.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ndubuisi, Gideon & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2018. "Domestic intellectual property rights protection and the margins of bilateral exports," MERIT Working Papers 2018-035, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    4. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Limão, Nuno & Handley, Kyle, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," CEPR Discussion Papers 9615, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    7. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    8. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    10. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Mau, Karsten, 2017. "US policy spillover(?) – China’s accession to the WTO and rising exports to the EU," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 169-188.
    14. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dambferfb7dfprc9m01g1j1k2 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dang, Tung Lam & Luong, Hoang & Nguyen, Lily & Nguyen, My, 2024. "Political uncertainty and commonality in liquidity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    18. Zhang, Li & Hu, Shiwei, 2023. "Foreign uncertainty and domestic exporter dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    21. Chahine, Salim & Daher, Mai & Saade, Samer, 2021. "Doing good in periods of high uncertainty: Economic policy uncertainty, corporate social responsibility, and analyst forecast error," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    22. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    23. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Larch, Mario & Yotov, Yoto V., 2015. "Economic integration agreements, border effects, and distance elasticities in the gravity equation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 307-327.
    24. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:52:y:2019:i:3:p:1248-1288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Prof. Werner Antweiler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.