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The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy

Author

Listed:
  • Armelius, Hanna

    (Ministry of Finance)

  • Hull, Isaiah

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield di erent impulse response functions for GDP growth than shocks to the US index. In particular, a one standard deviation shock to the Swedish index delivers its maximum impact in the same quarter, lowering GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points. In contrast, a shock to the US index delivers its maximum impact with a one-quarter delay. Other foreign proxies, such as the EU and German indices, also generate e ects that peak with a one-quarter delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Armelius, Hanna & Hull, Isaiah & Stenbacka Köhler, Hanna, 2016. "The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 334, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0334
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic uncertainty; policy uncertainty; business cycles; small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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