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Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico

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Abstract

El estudio de los efectos de la incertidumbre sobre la actividad económica de economías avanzadas es reciente, aunque copioso, pero el de economías pequeñas es aún escaso. Este documento analiza los efectos de una perturbación inesperada y temporal de la incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal sobre el ciclo económico de una economía pequeña (Colombia). Para cumplir este objetivo, primero, construye tasas efectivas de tributación sobre el consumo y los ingresos de los factores de producción, trabajo y capital, más un indicador de la política de gasto. Luego, introduce reglas fiscales para cada uno de los instrumentos, y modela y estima una medida de la incertidumbre fiscal. Por último, estima el impacto de perturbaciones de dicha incertidumbre sobre el ciclo económico. El modelo econométrico es un SVAR que se identifica mediante restricciones de signo, derivadas de las predicciones de un modelo DSGE neokeynesiano. La estimación se realiza por métodos bayesianos. Los resultados muestran que la incertidumbre acerca del comportamiento de los instrumentos fiscales distorsiona las decisiones de los agentes económicos y repercute de manera negativa sobre el ciclo económico. La principal implicación de política es que la autoridad fiscal debe mantener una política tributaria y de gasto estable, predecible y que responda a objetivos de largo plazo. Classification JEL: E32, E62, H3, C32, C51

Suggested Citation

  • Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1008
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    File URL: http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/6321/be_1008.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Nataly Obando & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2011. "Los salarios reales a lo largo del ciclo económico en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 666, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Ana María Iregui & Ligia Alba Melo & María Teresa Ramírez, 2009. "Formación e incrementos de salarios en Colombia: Un estudio microeconómico a partir de una encuesta a nivel de firma," Borradores de Economia 582, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. A. B. Atkinson, 2009. "Factor shares: the principal problem of political economy?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 3-16, Spring.
    4. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas, 2018. "¿Cuánto tributan efectivamente el consumo, el trabajo y el capital en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 1041, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    Keywords

    incertidumbre; política fiscal; ciclo económico; GARCH; SVAR; métodos bayesianos.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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