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FISCO: Modelo Fiscal para Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Hernán Rincón

    ()

  • Diego Rodríguez

    ()

  • Jorge Toro

    ()

  • Santiago Téllez

Abstract

El gobierno es un agente que influye sobre la actividad económica a lo largo del ciclo y afecta las variables reales y nominales de un país por medio de sus políticas de ingreso y de gasto. También es un determinante importante de la estabilidad macroeconómica, en cuanto que esta depende, entre otros, de la sostenibilidad de sus finanzas y de la contraciclicidad de sus políticas. El objetivo de este documento es construir un modelo fiscalmicrofundamentado de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico DSGE-neokeynesiano para Colombia (FISCO), en donde el gobierno juega un papel preponderante en la economía. El modelo se construye, calibra, estima y evalúa teniendo en cuenta sus particularidades económicas e institucionales. El propósito es que sirva como herramienta de análisis de la política fiscal y su nexo con la economía y la política monetaria. Con el propósito de evaluar las predicciones del modelo FISCO se presentan algunas simulaciones y se estudian las dinámicas de las principales variables macroeconómicas ante choques positivos y transitorios a las tasas de tributación, al gasto de funcionamiento, al gasto de inversión, a la tasa de interés de política monetaria y a la renta petrolera del gobierno. Las cinco conclusiones principales de política económica que emergen del modelo y de sus simulaciones son las siguientes. Primera, la inflación es un asunto que compete a la política monetaria, como se sabe, pero también a la política fiscal. Segunda, los choques positivos a la política fiscal son contrarrestados en cierto grado por la política monetaria; por el contrario, choques a esta última son refrendados por la política fiscal. Tercera, el choque al gasto de funcionamiento del gobierno desplaza a la inversión privada. Lo contario sucede con el choque a la inversión. En este mismo sentido, el recorte al gasto de inversión impacta en mayor medida a la economía que el ajuste al de funcionamiento. Cuarta, el balance estructural del gobierno depende del tipo de choque de política que enfrenta la economía. Quinta, la regla fiscal cumple un rol estabilizador de las finanzas del gobierno y de la economía, como es su objetivo; sin embargo, puede convertirse a la vez en un agravante de la situación macroeconómica ante ciertos choques.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2014. "FISCO: Modelo Fiscal para Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 012336, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:012336
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Modelo fiscal neokeynesiano DSGE; política fiscal y monetaria; canales y mecanismos de transmisión; regla fiscal estructural; estimación bayesiana; impactos macroeconómicos.;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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