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The short-term impact of government budgets on prices Evidence from macroeconometric models

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  • jerome henry

    (European Central Bank)

  • sandro momigliano

    (Banca d'Italia)

  • pablo hernandez de cos

    (Banco d'Espana)

Abstract

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short-term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well-established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the Eurosystem. The outcome is also compared with results from the European Commission and the OECD models. Overall, a broad consensus appears on the impact on prices of changes in individual government budget items in the euro area. In all cases, changes in government demand and in direct taxes paid by households have a limited impact on prices in the first year while, in contrast, changes in indirect taxes and employers’ social security contributions have a relatively large impact. The second year results show that the effects on prices usually take some time to materialise fully; in particular, they often become large for the public consumption shock.

Suggested Citation

  • jerome henry & sandro momigliano & pablo hernandez de cos, 2005. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices Evidence from macroeconometric models," Macroeconomics 0501020, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0501020
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 50. paper from the ecb working paper series, also available in the Banca d'Italia and Banco d'Espana series.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2007. "Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 713-737, April.
    2. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
    3. Fabrizio Balassone & Sandro Momigliano & Marzia Romanelli & Pietro Tommasino, 2014. "Just round the corner? Pros, cons, and implementation issues of a fiscal union for the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 245, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Benjamin Carton, 2012. "Tax Reform and Coordination in a Currency Union," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 141-158.
    5. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    6. Tobias Cwik & Volker Wieland, 2011. "Keynesian government spending multipliers and spillovers in the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(67), pages 493-549, July.
    7. Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Papers 0604, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    8. Antonio Spilimbergo & Steve Symansky & Olivier Blanchard & Carlo Cottarelli, 2009. "Fiscal Policy For The Crisis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(2), pages 26-32, July.
    9. Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
    11. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    12. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    13. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Xavier Bonnet & Brieuc Monfort & Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Jérôme Henry, 2003. "MZE, un modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro ; suivi d'un commentaire de Jérome Henry," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 367(1), pages 3-37.
    14. Miroslav Klucik, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustment in Slovakia: Findings from a Medium-Scale Econometric Model," Working Papers Working Paper No. 1/2015, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    15. Adela Luque, 2005. "Skill mix and technology in Spain: evidence from firm level data," Working Papers 0513, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro area; model simulations; fiscal policy; prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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