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Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach

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  • Maria Neicheva

Abstract

A large body of recent studies has explored the presence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects in advanced European economies, while relevant empirical sources on post-communist economies are scarce. In the context of the constraints imposed by the SGP, it is crucial for EU New Member States and acceding countries to estimate the macroeconomic impact of discretionary fiscal intervention. This article focuses on the effects of government expenditure on short-term output in the Bulgarian economy a few years prior to EU accession. It finds that government investment affects real growth in a Keynesian fashion while transfers and public consumption exhibit non-Keynesian behaviour. The cyclically adjusted components of the general government budget, computed by HP filter, form the basis of the analysis. The results support the conclusions of relevant studies about advanced European economies.

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  • Maria Neicheva, 2006. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Government Expenditure on Output in Bulgaria: An HP Filter Approach," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:18:y:2006:i:1:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370500505081
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    1. Angulo-Rodriguez, Hector E. & Castillo-Duran, Magda A. & Garza-Rodriguez, Jorge & Gonzalez-Hernandez, Monica & Puente-Ortiz, Ricardo, 2011. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Mexico," MPRA Paper 38717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Maria Neycheva, 2007. "Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Cumulative Production in the Bulgarian Economy," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 82-101.

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