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Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States

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  • Paweł Borys
  • Piotr Ciżkowicz
  • Andrzej Rzońca

Abstract

There is growing evidence that fiscal consolidation may contribute to economic growth even in the short term. In this paper we review recent research on such non-Keynesian fiscal policy effects and apply panel data econometric techniques to examine the consequences of fiscal consolidation in the EU New Member States. We extend the analysis to test potential channels through which non-Keynesian effects may operate. The results confirm that composition of the consolidation determines the output response. Moreover, we find evidence that all types of fiscal consolidations stimulate private investments, while export acceleration is observed only when consolidations involve mostly expenditure curtailment. Private consumption reaction to fiscal policy shows signs of nonlinearity - in the case of minor adjustments Keynesian effects dominate, but they are cancelled out when sizable consolidations are considered.
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  • Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:35:y:2014:i::p:189-224
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    2. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:74-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Tomislav GLOBAN & Marina MATOŠEC, 2016. "Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio in New EU Member States: Cut the Numerator or Increase the Denominator?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 57-72, September.
    4. Pawel Gajewski, 2014. "Sovereign spreads and financial market behavior before and during the crisis," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2014, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    5. Adam P. Balcerzak & Elzbieta Rogalska, 2016. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidations in Central Europe in the Years 2000-2013," Chapters,in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis (ed.), Entrepreneurship, Business and Economics - Vol. 2. Proceedings of the 15th Eurasia Business and Economics Society, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 271-282 Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Vdovychenko, Artem & Zubrytskyi, Artur, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidation on exports in Ukraine," MPRA Paper 70722, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2016.
    7. Zimčík Petr, 2016. "Economic Growth and Budget Constraints: EU Countries Panel Data Analysis," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 16(2), pages 87-101, June.
    8. Peter Friedrich & Janno Reiljan, 2016. "Estonian Economic Policy during Global Financial Crises," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(4), pages 37-44, January.
    9. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:1:p:118-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cavallo, Antonella & Ribba, Antonio, 2018. "Measuring the effects of oil price and Euro-area shocks on CEECs business cycles," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 74-96.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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