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Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries

Author

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  • Afonso, António
  • Nickel, Christiane
  • Rother, Philipp

Abstract

We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991-2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful. JEL Classification: C25, E62, H62

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp, 2005. "Fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 473, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005473
    Note: 166869
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central and Eastern Europe; fiscal episodes; fiscal policy; Logit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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