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Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques

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  • Jérôme Creel
  • Bruno Ducoudré
  • Catherine Mathieu
  • Henri Sterdyniak

Abstract

According to the NAK, Keynesian fiscal stabilisation policies have no favourable impact on output. This view is widely spread in Europe where public deficits and debts are judged excessive, which would raise interest rates and depress output (private agents anticipating future higher taxes). Section 1 provides a critical assessment of the NAK theoretical models, discussing transmission channels (consumption, investment, interest rates) and assumptions (current state of the economy, fiscal policy expectations, usefulness of public spending). Anti-Keynesian effects may only occur in very specific cases. Section 2 discusses the NAK empirical analyses (behavioural econometric analyses, statistical analyses, case studies, VAR models, macro-econometric models). Empirically, anti-Keynesian effects play mainly through investment and occur simultaneously with positive supply shocks. Section 3 draws policy conclusions. JEL code : E62.

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  • Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_092_0043
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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 159-192.
    2. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2014. "Redemption?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 51-91.
    3. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12010 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Charles, Sébastien & Dallery, Thomas, 2013. "Le Canada et l’austérité expansionniste dans les années quatre-vingt-dix : un « succès » macroéconomique à revisiter ?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(3), pages 207-230, Septembre.
    6. François Facchini, 2010. "2007 : une crise systémique ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 97(2), pages 155-183.
    7. Facchini, François & Melki, Mickaël, 2013. "Efficient government size: France in the 20th century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-14.
    8. BIKAI, J. Landry, 2015. "Fiscal Rules and Pro-cyclicality of the Fiscal Policy in CEMAC countries," MPRA Paper 78229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Jérôme Creel & Éric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps. Les multiplicateurs budgétaires au cours du cycle," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 61-88.
    11. HOUNKPODOTE, Hilaire & BATIONO, Rakissiwindé, 2009. "Heterogeneite De La Causalite Entre Depenses Publiques Et Croissance Economique Dans Les Pays De L'Uemoa:Quelles Implications Pour La Coordination Des Politiques Budgetaires
      [Heterogeneity Of The C
      ," MPRA Paper 26027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2011. "Finances publiques, sorties de crise…," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
    13. Abdenour, Redouan & Tounsi, Said, 2015. "Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: Moroccan Case," MPRA Paper 69830, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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