Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques

According to the NAK, Keynesian fiscal stabilisation policies have no favourable impact on output. This view is widely spread in Europe where public deficits and debts are judged excessive, which would raise interest rates and depress output (private agents anticipating future higher taxes). Section 1 provides a critical assessment of the NAK theoretical models, discussing transmission channels (consumption, investment, interest rates) and assumptions (current state of the economy, fiscal policy expectations, usefulness of public spending). Anti-Keynesian effects may only occur in very specific cases. Section 2 discusses the NAK empirical analyses (behavioural econometric analyses, statistical analyses, case studies, VAR models, macro-econometric models). Empirically, anti-Keynesian effects play mainly through investment and occur simultaneously with positive supply shocks. Section 3 draws policy conclusions. JEL code : E62.