IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v37y2014icp255-270.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing fiscal episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Afonso, António
  • Jalles, João Tovar

Abstract

In an OCDE panel, for the period 1970–2010, we assess the effects of fiscal consolidation episodes, with four different definitions. Our results reveal that lower final government consumption increases private consumption in three out of the four approaches, when a fiscal consolidation occurs, and the debt ratio is above the cross-country average. The magnitude of these coefficients is higher for countries with lower debt levels, implying more successful consolidations associated with reduced crowding-out effects. There is some evidence of non-Keynesian effects for both private consumption and private investment, and the effects of social transfers on private investment tend to be negative, both in the short and long run. In a financial crisis, such effects are also more prone to happen. Finally, raising long-term interest rates reduces per capita private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:255-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499931300477X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.035?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1982. "Government deficits and aggregate demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20.
    2. van Aarle, Bas & Garretsen, Harry, 2003. "Keynesian, non-Keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 213-240, June.
    3. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Roberto Perotti, 1998. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 367-394, March.
    5. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-124, October.
    6. Campbell, John Y, 1996. "Understanding Risk and Return," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 298-345, April.
    7. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    8. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    9. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    10. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Are Fiscal Adjustments Bad for Investment?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2010-17, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    11. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lambertini, Luisa & Jose Tavares, 2002. "Exchange rates and fiscal adjustments: evidence from the OECD and implications for EMU," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp412, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    14. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    15. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    16. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    17. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Morris, Richard & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2007. "Structural balances and revenue windfalls: the role of asset prices revisited," Working Paper Series 737, European Central Bank.
    19. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    20. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp C. Rother, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 402-421, July.
    21. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lambertini Luisa & Tavares José A, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fiscal Adjustments: Evidence from the OECD and Implications for the EMU," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. "Is private consumption growth higher (lower) during periods of fiscal contractions (expansions)?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 17-39, March.
    24. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    25. Sutherland, Alan, 1997. "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
    26. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    27. Gobbin, Niko & van Aarle, Bas, 2001. "Fiscal Adjustments and Their Effects during the Transition to the EMU," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 269-299, December.
    28. De Bandt, Olivier & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2000. "Convergence of fiscal policies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 20, European Central Bank.
    29. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    31. Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 418, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    32. Giudice, Gabriele & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio & Veld, Jan in't, 2004. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Consolidation in the EU? Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    34. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer (ed.), 1990. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521555.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    2. Joao Tovar Jalles & Carlos Mulas‐Granados & José Tavares, 2021. "Fiscal discipline and exchange rates: Does politics matter?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 155-178, May.
    3. F. Heylen & A. Hoebeeck & T. Buyse, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation, institutions and institutional reform: a multivariate analysis of public debt dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/763, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    5. Beaton Kimberly & Cevik Serhan & Yousefi Seyed Reza, 2018. "Smooth operator: remittances and household consumption during fiscal shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
    7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Episodes and Market Power," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 233-250, April.
    8. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    9. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    10. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
    11. Antonio Afonso & Jose Alves & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2022. "To consolidate or not to consolidate? A multi-step analysis to assess needed fiscal sustainability," Working Papers 2022.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    12. Martin Murín, 2016. "Vplyv spôsobu tvorby fiškálneho deficitu na ekonomický rast [The Influence of Fiscal Deficit Creation on Economic Growth]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 176-192.
    13. António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2022. "Fiscal episodes in the Economic and Monetary Union: Elasticities and non‐Keynesian effects," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 571-593, January.
    14. Mr. Serhan Cevik & Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi & Ms. Kimberly Beaton, 2017. "Smooth Operator: Remittances and Fiscal Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2017/165, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    16. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 142-157.
    17. Sanjeev Gupta & João T Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Michela Schena, 2018. "Planned fiscal adjustments: Do governments fulfil their commitments?," European Union Politics, , vol. 19(3), pages 383-407, September.
    18. Markus Leibrecht & Johann Scharler, 2021. "Veto players, market discipline, and structural fiscal consolidations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 361-384, September.
    19. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & João Tovar Jalles & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2017. "Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 484-511, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    2. Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
    3. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    4. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    5. Afonso, António & Alves, José & Jalles, João Tovar, 2022. "The (non-)Keynesian effects of fiscal austerity: New evidence from a large sample," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    6. Philip Arestis & Ayşe Kaya & Hüseyin Şen, 2018. "Does fiscal consolidation promote economic growth and employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 289-312, November.
    7. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Keynesian or Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: the Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 335-347, March.
    8. Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    10. F. Heylen & A. Hoebeeck & T. Buyse, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation, institutions and institutional reform: a multivariate analysis of public debt dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/763, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    13. Charles Amo Yartey & Mr. Machiko Narita & Mr. Shelton M Nicholls & Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2012/276, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vitor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 113-134.
    15. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Are Fiscal Adjustments Bad for Investment?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2010-17, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    16. Anton Burger & Martin Zagler, 2008. "US growth and budget consolidation in the 1990s: was there a non-Keynesian effect?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 225-235, July.
    17. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    18. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    19. Burger, Anton, 2006. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 95, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Geiger, Martin & Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2016. "When do fiscal consolidations lead to consumption booms? Lessons from a laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Non-Keynesian effects; Financial crises; Panel data; Endogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:255-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.