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Assessing fiscal episodes

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  • Afonso, António
  • Jalles, João Tovar

Abstract

In an OCDE panel, for the period 1970–2010, we assess the effects of fiscal consolidation episodes, with four different definitions. Our results reveal that lower final government consumption increases private consumption in three out of the four approaches, when a fiscal consolidation occurs, and the debt ratio is above the cross-country average. The magnitude of these coefficients is higher for countries with lower debt levels, implying more successful consolidations associated with reduced crowding-out effects. There is some evidence of non-Keynesian effects for both private consumption and private investment, and the effects of social transfers on private investment tend to be negative, both in the short and long run. In a financial crisis, such effects are also more prone to happen. Finally, raising long-term interest rates reduces per capita private investment.

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  • Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:255-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.035
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    Cited by:

    1. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    2. F. Heylen & A. Hoebeeck & T. Buyse, 2011. "Fiscal consolidation, institutions and institutional reform: a multivariate analysis of public debt dynamics," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/763, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2017. "Fiscal Episodes and Market Power," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 233-250, April.
    5. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    6. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    7. João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "Promised Fiscal Expansions and Politics: A European Union Assessment," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(1), pages 84-116, March.
    8. Ciminelli, Gabriele & Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2019. "The composition effects of tax-based consolidation on income inequality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
    9. António Afonso & José Alves & João Tovar Jalles, 2021. "(Non-) Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Austerity: New Evidence from a large sample," Working Papers REM 2021/0158, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    10. Bi, Huixin & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2016. "Debt-dependent effects of fiscal expansions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 142-157.
    11. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & João Tovar Jalles & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2017. "Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 484-511, June.
    12. Beaton Kimberly & Cevik Serhan & Yousefi Seyed Reza, 2018. "Smooth operator: remittances and household consumption during fiscal shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21, June.
    13. Martin Murín, 2016. "Vplyv spôsobu tvorby fiškálneho deficitu na ekonomický rast [The Influence of Fiscal Deficit Creation on Economic Growth]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(2), pages 176-192.
    14. Mr. Serhan Cevik & Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi & Ms. Kimberly Beaton, 2017. "Smooth Operator: Remittances and Fiscal Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2017/165, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Non-Keynesian effects; Financial crises; Panel data; Endogeneity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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