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Panel data evidence on the effects of fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States

We identify fiscal impulses in the EU New Member States using four different methods and apply econometric panel data techniques to determine what is the response of the output and its components to those impulses. We also directly test the effects of fiscal impulses on labour costs and housholds’ expectations. The results confirm that the composition of impulses matters for output and its components’ response. Notably, we find evidence that investment and export growth accelerates after fiscal adjustment and decelerates after fiscal stimulus when the impulses are expenditure-based. In turn, private consumption seems not to respond to fiscal impulses regardless of their size. The analysis confirms that expenditure-based fiscal adjustments enhance wage moderation and thereby competitiveness of domestic enterprises, while expenditure-based fiscal stimuli weaken it. By contrast, we do not find evidence that fiscal impulses have an effect on households’ confidence.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/161_en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 161.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:161
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  1. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
  2. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2009. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price movements," Working Papers 104, Bank of Greece.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," NBER Working Papers 9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Roberto Perotti, 2012. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 307-354 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity myth": Gain Without Pain?," BIS Working Papers 362, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Perotti, Roberto, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Roberto Perotti, 2011. "The "Austerity Myth": Gain without Pain?," Working Papers 430, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  11. Silber, William L, 1970. "Fiscal Policy in IS-LM Analysis: A Correction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 461-72, November.
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