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Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Giavazzi, Francesco

    (IGIER, U Bocconi)

  • Jappelli, Tullio

    (CSEF, U Salerno)

  • Pagano, Marco

    (CSEF, U Naples "Federico II")

  • Benedetti, Marina

    (IGIER, U Bocconi)

Abstract

Data revisions and the availability of a longer sample offer the opportunity to reconsider empirical findings that suggest that in the OECD countries national saving responds non-monotonically to fiscal policy. The paper confirms that the circumstance most likely to give rise to a non-monotonic response of national saving to a fiscal impulse is a "large and persistent impulse," defined as one in which the full employment surplus, as a percentage of potential output, changes by at least 1.5 percentage points per year over a two-year period. This particular circumstance remains the only statistically significant one even when we allow for non-monotonic responses to arise when public debt is growing rapidly or interest rate spreads are widening. We find that non-monotonic responses are similar for fiscal contractions and expansions. In particular, an increase in net taxes has no effect on national saving during large fiscal contractions or expansions. For government consumption there is a large, albeit in some specifications less than complete, offset during expansions or contractions.

Suggested Citation

  • Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Benedetti, Marina, 2005. "Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 197-217, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:23:y:2005:i:s1:p:197-217
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Temporary and Persistent Fiscal Policy Shocks," IHEID Working Papers 06-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Botta, Alberto & Tori, Daniele, 2017. "A critique to the expansionary austerity (part III): empirical counter facts beyond theoretical weaknesses," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 16387, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    3. Fatih Ozatay, 2008. "Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: New Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0805, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics.
    4. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2006. "Mr. Ricardo’s Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," IMF Working Papers 2006/168, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Wissem Khanfir, 2019. "Keynesian or Non-keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: the Case of Tunisia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 335-347, March.
    6. Paweł Borys & Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca, 2014. "Panel Data Evidence on the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks in the EU New Member States," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 189-224, June.
    7. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Lubiński, Marek, . "Mnożnik fiskalny: reaktywacja," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2015(1).
    9. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    10. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1cud3763momrc7c9o91o4g581 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rosaria Rita Canale & Pasquale Foresti & Ugo Marani & Oreste Napolitano, 2008. "On keynesian effects of (apparent) non-keynesian fiscal policies," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-46.
    13. Gabriele Giudice & Alessandro Turrini & Jan in’t Veld, 2007. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Adjustments? A Close Look at Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations in the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 613-630, November.
    14. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-1.
    15. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Marek Lubiński, 2015. "Mnożnik fiskalny: reaktywacja," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-26.
    17. Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 2009/018, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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