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Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model

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  • Bayoumi, Tamim
  • Sgherri, Silvia

Abstract

We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bayoumi, Tamim & Sgherri, Silvia, 2006. "Mr Ricardo's Great Adventure: Estimating Fiscal Multipliers in a Truly Intertemporal Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5839, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5839
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    Cited by:

    1. Neil Rankin, 2014. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt In The Perpetual Youth Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 217-230, July.
    2. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    3. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Carlos de Resende & René Lalonde & Stephen Snudden, 2010. "The Power of Many: Assessing the Economic Impact of the Global Fiscal Stimulus," Discussion Papers 10-1, Bank of Canada.
    5. Ricardo Félix & Gabriela Castro & José Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers in a Small Euro Area Economy: How Big Can They Get in Crisis Times?," EcoMod2013 5307, EcoMod.
    6. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2010. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Small Euro Area Economy," Working Papers w201016, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing; The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
    9. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2013. "Fiscal deficits and current account deficits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2062-2082.
    10. Alun H. Thomas & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "Today versus Tomorrow - The Sensitivity of the Non-Oil Current Account Balance to Permanent and Current Income," IMF Working Papers 09/248, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Silvia Sgherri & Tamim Bayoumi, 2009. "On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness," IMF Working Papers 09/18, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Staehr, Karsten, 2008. "Fiscal policies and business cycles in an enlarged euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 46-69, March.
    13. Castro, Gabriela & Félix, Ricardo M. & Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2015. "Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 276-294.
    14. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    15. Castro, Gabriela & Maria, José R. & Félix, Ricardo Mourinho & Braz, Cláudia Rodrigues, 2017. "Aging And Fiscal Sustainability In A Small Euro Area Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(07), pages 1673-1705, October.
    16. Guy M Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances; Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Leigh, Daniel, 2014. "To starve or not to starve the beast?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 1-23.
    18. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Tamim Bayoumi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "On the Impact of Income and Policy Shocks on Consumption," DNB Working Papers 152, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    discount rates; fiscal multipliers; fiscal policy; Ricardian equivalence;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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