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Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area

  • Ratto Marco

    (European Commission, DG JRC)

  • Roeger Werner

    (Eurepean Commission, DG ECFIN)

  • Veld Jan

    (European Commission, DG ECFIN)

This paper presents an open economy DSGE model, which is estimated on a euro area data set using Bayesian techniques. It extents current models by allowing for a detailed empirical analysis of fiscal stabilisation policies. Reaction functions for expenditure categories are estimated in order to measure the extent of the fiscal response of various expenditure categories and to determine the lags of fiscal policy. On the revenue side we use the OECD tax elasticities. Our paper has three objectives: On the methodological side we are interested how much the addition of fiscal policy improves the fit of the DSGE model. The economic issues we explore are first, what has been the contribution of fiscal policy to stabilize the euro area economy? And second, what has been the size of fiscal shocks and how much have they increased the volatility of GDP growth and inflation in the euro area

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 with number 43.

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Date of creation: 04 Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:43
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  1. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "The Case For Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1419-1447, November.
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  4. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Artis, Michael J & Onorante, Luca, 2006. "The Economic Importance of Fiscal Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 5684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  8. Werner R�ger & Jan in 't Veld, 2002. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model," European Economy - Economic Papers 178, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
  11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  12. Marco Ratto & Werner R�ger & Jan in't Veld & Riccardo Girardi, 2005. "An estimated new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 220, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  13. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. C�cile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner R�ger, 2002. "Production function approach to calculating potential growth and output gaps - estimates for the EU Member States and the US," European Economy - Economic Papers 176, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  16. Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte, 2006. "The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 142, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Galí, Jordi & Vallés, Javier & Wolman, Alexander L., 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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